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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

2023 NFL BEST BETS: THANKSGIVING

Spreads, Totals, and a Turkey Day Parlay

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions(-7.5)

Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys(-12.5)

San Francisco 49ers(-7.0) @ Seattle Seahawks

Turkey Day Parlay: Read Below DK +296

NFL Best Bet Season Record: 33-33-1

Big Trent and Deebo
Getty



As part of my not overthinking it, I will be continuing that and looking at facts and trusting them. Let's make some Best Bets.



Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions(-7.5)

DK -112

FD -110


The Detroit Lions rank 5th in offense DVOA, 10th in defense DVOA, and 14th in special tems DVOA. The Green Bay Packers rank 19th in offense DVOA, 24th in defense DVOA, and 31st in special teams DVOA. The Lions clear the Packers in every aspect of football this season and I have not forgotten how they thrashed them in Lambeau on Thursday Night Football back in September. The final score was 34-20 but it was 27-3 at the half and the refs did their best to help the Packers cover. Cycles of the moon be damned, the Lions are so much better than the PAckers and I'm expecting the 4th ranked rushing attack in the NFL to bludgeon the 20th ranked rush defense.



Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys(-12.5)

DK -110

FD -110


The Dallas Cowboys rank 10th in offense DVOA, 3rd in defense DVOA, and 8th in special teams DVOA. The Washington Commanders rank 22nd in offense DVOA, 30th in defense DVOA, and 20th in special teams DVOA. Sam Howell does not feel pressure and that's a terrible thing. He doesn't have ice in his veins, he has the feeling of invicibility in his veins and is the reason he is being sacked as often as he is. That's not great for the Commies. The Commanders' defense is also terrible, which the Cowboys will trake advantage of. The single biggest thing in favor of the Cowboys is that they play NFL football like it's the BCS era of college football. They level bad teams better than any other team in the NFL, especially at home. This is going to be a great game to fall asleep to.



San Francisco 49ers(-7.0) @ Seattle Seahawks

DK -108

FD -115


The Seahawks aren't bad team. They're a team that beats bad teams and loses to good ones and the Rams. The DVOA thing I was doing up top was to illustrate how much better Lions and Cowboys are when compared to the Packers and Commanders respectively. The 49ers are currently undefeated when Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel start and finish games they are active in. They matter more than anybody else to the offensive operation the 49ers have. They are active, and the 49ers are rdidng a 9 game regular season win streak against the NFC West. I love them winning by at least a touchdown, especially sionce Kenneth Walker is out and Geno Smith is hobbled.



Turkey Day Parlay: David Montgomery+CeeDee Lamb+Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD

DK +296

FD +379


These players are ballers and I'm rooting for some points from my picks, should be a fun parlay to throw a cup of coffee on.



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