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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

2023 WILDCARD WEEKEND BEST BETS: SATURDAY

Cleveland Browns(-2.0/2.5) @ Houston Texans

Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 43.5

NFL Best Bet Season Record: 61-64-6

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Welcome to Thunderdome. Here are some Best Bets


Cleveland Browns(-2.0/2.5) @ Houston Texans

DK -2.0 -112

FD -2.5 -105


I love CJ Stroud. I think DeMeco Ryans did an unbelievable job his 1st year coaching. Bobby Slowik was a revelation at play caller. All of these things are why I think the Texans might be running the AFC South if Jacksonville doesn't figure it out.


I think Myles Garrett and friends are going to be a rude slap back to reality. As good as CJ is, he has yet to face anything close to the freak show nonsense Jim Schwartz is going to throw at him. To prepare for a Schwartz scheme means having faced one before and being able to understand just how often he'll be disguising looks. The only defensive play callers comparable are Mayo/Belichick and Steve Spagnuolo.


It also goes without saying: Joe Flacco is elite.


Browns all day on this Saturday.




Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 43.5

DK -112

FD -115


This game has everything. Historically low temperatures. The visiting team being from Miami and being decimated by injuries, besides their 3 most important players, Tua, Hill, and Armstead. They don't play well in the cold to begin with, and with what they'll be playing in, 32 degrees will feel downright summery.


Miami does have the fact that they are a dynamic running team, but they cannot take advantage of KC being bad against the run they way a power team can. KC is poor against man based blocking schemes. The kinds you see Detroit and sometimes the Rams running where it's Hat on a Hat and double teams to attack the middle of the field violently. Miami runs a modernized west coast zone scheme. That scheme focuses more on attacking space and open grass more than it does attacking players. That's why they love speed so much. This scheme is explosive but it does allow heavy tackle for loss potential, especially with a ravaged offensive line against a good defensive line that KC features. I think Miami struggles to move the ball in these conditions.


Kansas City doesn't need historically bad weather to not move the ball, they just do that on their own these days. What they need to do is give Pacheco the ball 30 times on inside zone behind what's arguably the best interior line in the NFL. It's Andy Reid and he is allergic to that type of offense so I imagine we get general KC tackle poor play that's exacerbated by the bad receiver play. This game screams under, so grab it.



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