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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

2024 MLB PREVIEW: NL WEST

PREVIEWS, PROPS, AND MORE!

NL West
MLB.com


Previewing the NL West is less about figuring out who will perform well, it's more about who will be joining the Dodgers in the Post-Season. Let's rip


Colorado Rockies

Nolan Jones
Dustin Bradford/Getty Images



2023 Record: 59-103(80-82 ATS)

Batting WAR: 0.6(30th)

Pitching WAR: 5.9(28th)



Key departures: LHP Brent Suter, RHP Chris Flexen


2024 O/U: 59.5

2024 Division Odds: +20000

2024 NL Pennant Odds: +25000

2024 World Series Odds: +50000


Man, the Rockies are the single bleakest team in the whole MLB. They seemingly have no plan to get back to respectful baseball. In terms of things to watch for, they have some bats that could be cornerstones or used for a prospect haul. Elias Diaz, Brenan Rodgers, and Ryan McMahon are solid. They could all be good to get prospects back that show a clear sign of direction. Kris Bryant is an enigma, it'd be cool for him to be good again but at this point in time it's hard to say if we'll ever see him play at a high level again. If he's good you can get some decent prospects back for him. Charlie Blackmon is Mr. Rockie but he should shipped off as a rental. Everything else besides a player I'm about to mention is a try out to see if they can produce at a high level. If they're young, they can be a part of the next good Rockies teams. If they're older, they can be used to stock the farm. That's all players besides Nolan Jones.


Nolan Jones has Silver Slugger potential. The corner outfielder is heading into his age 25 season having amassed 3.7 WAR in only 106 games in the 2023 campaign. He slashed .297/.389/.542 last season and while he's projected to be slightly less productive, I think he can manage a near .300/.400/.500 slash line, especially with 81 games at Coors. Nolan Jones is the franchise cornerstone, everybody else should be used to build around him.


Pitching at Coors is a nightmare . The massive field does little to stop the lack of gravity in the Mile High City. The hope is to have Ryan Feltner, Austin Gomber, Kyle Freeland, Cal Quantrill, and Daklota Hudson can eat enough innings to keep the prospects from getting shelled and having their confidence shatter.


All and all, this team ins more directionless than the A's, but the NL is weaker top to bottom than the AL and you can count on the bats at Coors to steal a couple dozen games they had no business being competitive in.


Over or Under

Anything under 60 is too low for me. Over


Team/Player Prop

64-69 wins at +400 is very feasible



San Francisco Giants

Patrick Bailey
MLB.com


2023 Record: 79-83(72-90 ATS)

Batting WAR: 15.8(18th)

Pitching WAR: 14.5(16th)


Key additions: CF Jung Hoo Lee, DH Jorge Soler, RHP Jordan Hicks, LHP Robbie Ray, C Tom Murphy



2024 O/U: 82.5

2024 Division Odds: +1300

2024 NL Pennant Odds: +2800

2024 World Series Odds: +6000



The last of the even year devil magic Giants have left the team and the first time in a very long time, McCovey Cove is going to look very, very different. Bob Melvin is the manager. Patrick Bailey is behind the plate. Marco Luciano is playing shortstop. It's all new for them.


The lineup is looking pretty solid. Joining Patrick Bailey, LaMonte Wade Jr., Mike Yastrzemski, and Michael Conforto are Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler, and Jung Hoo Lee. Those three are all +++ bats that are being added to what was a mediocre lineup. All in all, the Giants should have a good lineup.


The real issues for them come from the lack of consistent starting pitching. They rely extremely heavily on openers and just don't have the horses. it is hard picking a team that does not have 3-4 guys who can go at least 180 IP. Logan Webb is a classic front end starter that can go 6 and 7 consistently, the question is who can join him on the frontline. Blake Snell has electric stuff, but he is a bullpen killer. Maybe the marriage of a bullpen killer with an exceptional bullpen will work out well, but I need to see it to believe it. Their bullpen is a amazing, but I can't but too much faith in a team that has only 3 starters projected to go at least 130 IP. Camilo Doval is fantastic and he could win a reliver of the year award.


I think they're an alright team, but just lack the frontline depth to be truly impactful. They could sneak into the Wildcard race, but that really depends on how the AL Central plays out more than anything else.


Over or Under

The Giants have improved, I think over is fair. Bob Melvin and the revamped lineup is worth a handful of wins.


Team, Player Prop

Jorge Soler OVER 28.5 dingers. This is the year a Giant hits 30 dingers for the first time since Barry Bonds do it.




San Diego Padres

Ha Seong Kim
MLB.com


2023 Record: 82-80(72-90 ATS)

Batting WAR: 15.8(18th)

Pitching WAR: 14.5(16th)



Key departures: OF Juan Soto, LHP Josh Hader, LHP Blake Snell, RHP Nick Martinez, RHP Michael Wacha, RHP Seth Lugo, OF Trent Grisham


2024 O/U: 83.5

2024 Division Odds: +1100

2024 NL Pennant Odds: +2500

2024 World Series Odds: +5000



The Padres are having a level setting, reset year. They have enough money spent to reman competitive as they rebuild their farm, but there's no question that they have a worse roster than last year. Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Ha-Seong Kim, and Jake Cronenworth are all great ball players that will win games for them with their bats. Losing Juan Soto is immeasurable. His consistency was the only reason the Padres were in contention for a wild card spot to begin with. Their lineup is worse without Soto and they'll need everybody to make up for what Soto did for them. Luis Campusano and Jackson Merrill really need to step up for this lineup be competing for a playoff spot.


Losing Blake Snell would hurt more if they did not trade for Dylan Cease. Cease is like a right handed Snell in terms of pitching style, but he has more length in his starts on average. Cease, Darvish, and Musgrove are all going to go at least 170 IP. Michael King and Johnny Brito are very versatile and can be used as long relievers or openers that can give you up to 5 an opening. They lost Hader but gained Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui, and Woo-Suk Go. The Bullpen will be solid and deep. The starters are going to be good barring disaster seasons, this staff is good.


Their season is going to come down to the lineup doing enough to allow the bullpen to shut the door on opposing teams. Considering the struggles they had scoring runs with Juan Soto on their team, I can't picture them doing well with without him. I think with high likelihood of the Giants bouncing back, packaged with the next team I'll be discussing being primed to win 90 games, I think the Fathers are going to be dealing with a setback year.


Over or Under

Under. I think they have a setback season as they rebuild their farm.


Player Prop

Fernando Tatis Jr. OVER 34.5 dingers. FanGraphs has him for 37 and with his first full season in a while I think he'll be more than able to do it.



Arizona Diamondbacks

Corbin Carroll
Stacy Revere/Getty Images

2023 Record: 84-78(85-76 ATS)

Batting WAR: 19.7(13th)

Pitching WAR: 13.0(22nd)


Key additions: 3B Eugenio Suárez, LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, OF/DH Joc Pederson


Key departures: OF Tommy Pham, 3B Evan Longoria, RHP Mark Melancon


2024 O/U: 83.5

2024 Division Odds: +1000

2024 NL Pennant Odds: +2200

2024 World Series Odds: +4000



The Snakes went on a magical run and just went up against a bunch of dudes who have been there, done that. They are primed to improve upon a team that performed to their projections far ahead of schedule. Corbin Carroll is a potential perennial 5 WAR player and could be even more than that if he finds a way to strike out less and walk some more. Alek Thomas is a baller that has room to grow and Ketel Marte and Gabriel Moreno are rock solid All-Star level players. Christian Walker is now joined by Eugenio Suarez and Joc Pederson as guys with serious pop in their bats that will provide even more offense in a lineup that manufactured it very well with speed and contact. Round out this lineup with Geraldo Perdomo and Lourdes Gurriel and you have one of the deepest lineups in the NL and they can attack you with speed, power, and contact. They're dangerous.


The biggest issue for the Diamondbacks in 2023 was a lack of consistent starting pitching. Zac Gellen and Merrill Kelly are a dynamic 1-2 punch that can just go out and win any game they start. They went and got Eduardo Rodriguez and now they have 3 front men that can all go at least 180 IP in a season. Last season's breakout playoff star Brandon Pfaadt is primed to take a leap and Ryne Nelson can eat up enough innings to allow a solid bullpen to stay rested throughout the season. Paul Sewald, Kevin Ginkel, and Miguel Castro all are great in high leverage spots and they have tons of useful depth that will keep them fresh all season.


I love the Snakes to win 90 games this season. I think you can lock them in for a wild card spot. They're primed to make an Orioles the jump thanks to their youth movement that accounts for the modern way to play baseball.


Over or Under

Over. I love them to be the top wildcard team


Player Prop

Corbin Carroll OVER 23.5 Dingers. He only has room to grow



Los Angeles Dodgers

Shotime
AP Photo/Lee Jin-man


2023 Record: 100-62(92-69 ATS)

Batting WAR: 34.4(2nd)

Pitching WAR: 16.8(10th)




2024 O/U: 103.5

2024 Division Odds: -450

2024 NL Pennant Odds: +180

2024 World Series Odds: +350


What do you do when you're a team that can 100 games without batting an eye but is filled with playoff droppers? You go get high variance big time performers. There is no bigger big time performer than Shohei Ohtani. I don't know whether or not he's gambling like crazy, but assuming the MLB is going to make sure he can play, he's going to still be one of the best hitters if not the best hitter in all of MLB. Drop him in a lineup with Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Teoscar Hernandez, Max Muncy, James Outman and Gavin Lux you are going top perform at a higher level. The lineup is ridiculous. There is no way they don't mash their way to 100 games like the Gas House Gorillas.


The biggest issue the Dodgers had was starting pitching. Kershaw is aging while Dustin May and Walker Buehler keep getting hurt. So obviously you trade for Tyler Glasnow and sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a gazllion dollar deal to fix it. Buehler is back healthy and Bobby Miller looks ready to take a leap. The bullpen is very solid lead by Brusdar Graterol and Evan Phillips. The pitching staff looks fixed.


The biggest issue the Dodgers have is that their defense might be completely abysmal, especially the infield Mookie Betts shouldn't be playing shortstop under any circumstance. Max Muncy shouldn't be in the field at this point in his career. The infield is an abject disaster from the left side alone. The outfield is fine despite Teoscar Hernandez playing the field instead of DH'ing. The Dodgers still have a bit of that three true outcome mindset and that could end up harming them in the long run.


Over or Under

Under. 104 is insane for a team with such little defensive integrity


Player Prop

Ohtrani OVER 38.5 dingers. Fangraphs is projecting 39 and he has multiple games in Coors and Chase Field



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