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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

Best Bet 7/20/2023

The Houston Astros(-1.5) @ The Oakland Athletics

DK -110

FD -110

BSB -110

Best Bet Season Record: 2-4

Karen Warren/Houston Chronicle Staff photographer

This is best bet is for a winner. -110 to cover against a team that Houston has owned for what feels like a decade at this point is incredible. So far on the season, Houston is 6-0 on the season against Oakland, with a 31-9 run differential. They last played in May and the biggest difference is that Houston is missing Yordan Alvarez, who is a monster. That may be a reason why bettors have yet to push the line to -2.5 of a lower number, but in my opinion the lack of Yordan isn't enough to believe Oakland can cover, especially with who they have going for them today.

Hogan Harris is not good.

I'd go as far to say he's been bad this year. I like using advanced stats when dealing with a small sample size such as Harris's 47 IP. The rookie is having a very rough "Welcome to The Show" beginning to his career. His raw numbers are very bad, his advanced numbers are even worse as seen above, and he's facing a very professional lineup in the Houston Astros.

The Astros have a team slash line of .250/.324/.412, which is a mark that places them 12th in all of MLB. The slightly above average offense with their pitching staff that ranks top 10 in almost every meaningful category should be enough to get wins, and more importantly covers.

The offense has been fine and can be carried at times by their best hitter in Yordan's absence, Kyle Tucker.

The Baseball Savant Page is great. The traditional .298/.376/.498 slash line with 14 Home Runs and 15 Stolen Bases is great. Kyle Tucker is great. He's a player worth adding a parlay on for total bases in a game against a pitcher as bad as Hogan Harris.

I'm looking for a winner right here, just trying to avoid a Mace the Mush or Mush Mace for Money situation. Oakland's Bad. Houston's good. The match checks out, grab Houston -110 to cover.

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