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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

Best Bet 7/22/2023

Dylan Cease 7+ Strikeouts Thrown Parlayed with Dylan Cease 2+ Walks Allowed: DK +130

BSB Alternate: Dylan Cease Strikeouts OVER 6.5 Parlayed with Total Outs Recorded OVER 16.5: +162

FD Alternate: Dylan Cease OVER 7.5 Strikeouts Parlayed with Sonny Gray 5+ Strikeouts: +166

Best Bet Season Record: 4-4
Charles Rex Arbogast/AP

Dylan Cease is having a down year, for his standards. The ERA looks mediocre at 4.18, but at least his under the hood stats are over performing, with a 3.76 FIP, 10.78 K/9 and a 71.3 Left on Base Percentage. Baseball Savant also loves his stuff since he throws hard with a lot of RPM's, and he does a good job avoiding barrels.

Cease has also been on of the most unlucky pitchers in all of MLB this year with having allowed a .313 BABIP, which is a good 53 percentage points higher than his allowed BABIP when he finished as American League Cy Young Runner up. He has shown up and had good games this season, but his biggest issue will likely always be his walk rate. Cease nibbles around the edges of the plate with his pitch mix. The fastball and slider are great, but they live above and below the strike zone respectively. He's added a curveball and a show me change up that mirror the slider and fastball in terms of pitch location. The stuff plays. And as you'll see on the Baseball Savant page above, it leads to a healthy K% percentile and an unhealthy BB% percentile.

The reason for Cease being my first best bet prop is because hehas taken the bump 20 times for the White Sox this season and thrown a 107.2 IP, so there's more than enough sample size to pull from for his trends this season. Cease has struck out at least 7 batters in 8 of his 20 starts this season, and separately he has walked at least 2 batters in 14 of his 20 starts. The numbers are there for this to hit.

The alternates are there because I know not everyone uses Draft Kings and because the sites offer different types of parlays and there is no one to one here. If you use Barstool Sportsbook, Cease has pitched at least 6 innings in 9 starts this season, which clears the total outs recorded by 1.5. For Fan Duel users, Sonny Gray has recorded at least 5 strikeouts in 14 of his 19 starts this season. To read more about why he's been so effective, check out the 7/17/2023 Best Bet post.

Ultimately, I think Dylan Cease stuff can still play, especially against a Team like Minnesota, where the offense is bad enough on paper for him to perform well before you mention that the Twins are dead last in K%, where their at bats end in a strikeout 27% of the time. Take one of these bets, take all of em, I'm rocking with them, and you should too, responsibly.

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