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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

Best Bet 7/25/2023

Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 8.0 Runs

DK -110

FD -110

BSB -110

Best Bet Season Record: 6-7

Lauren Leigh Bacho/Getty Images


While the Cincinnati Reds are young, fun, and taking up the National League Central Spotlight, the Milwaukee Brewers have been plugging along doping there thing to the tune of a 55-45 record, good for first in the division. The Brewers have also saved their best ball of the season for the dog days of summer. They are 7-3 in their last 10, 13-7 in their last 20, and 19-11 in their last 30. They've opened the 2nd half of the season by sweeping the Reds in Cincy, taking 2 of 3 from the Phillies in Philly, and losing 2 close games to the Braves in what felt like a future playoff matchup. They're hot right now and they're dancing with what brought them to this consistent division contender status; pitching. No one on their staff is pitching better than Corbin Burnes.


Burnes had a rough start to the year, giving up a lot of runs and home runs in the first couple months of the season. Through June he had a 4.10 ERA and 4.33 FIP, which are decidedly mediocre. He was inconsistent game to game and you weren't sure if he was going to get blown up or throw it back to a Cy Young caliber performance. All the while under the hood it looked good, per Baseball Savant, and it was seemingly just a matter of time before he started twirling his Air-Bender level pitch mix.

In 4 starts in July, Burnes has logged 27.0 IP of 4 run ball, striking out 36 and walking 9 in that time frame. One of those starts was a throwback 6.0 IP of shut out ball while striking out 13 Reds. The formula is the same as it's been for the past 4 years: throw a ton of barely hittable cutters to set-up and unhittable curveball.



His Cutter accounts for 53.9% of his pitches thrown this year. It has induced a .227 BA, .356 SLG, and a rare for a fastball 24.5% Whiff Rate. This partners with his Curveball, his 2nd most used pitch at 17.9% of pitches thrown, to be devastating to opposing hitters. The hook has induced a .100 BA, .133 SLG, and a 46.2% Whiff Rate. The stuff is nasty, and it's translating to tangible results in 2023.


Now best bet unders take two to tango. I've mentioned the Reds before with how awesome their offense is and that they put up a lot of runs. Not against Mr. Burnes they don't. Burnes is 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA in 18 IP against Cincy this season, racking up 13.0 K/9. So we have a Reds offense that's struggled to do damage against the opposing pitcher. I've also mentioned how the Reds can't pitch very well aside from a handful of arms in the rotation and an elite closer. Well one of those elite arms, Andrew Abbott, is taking the mound tonight. Abbott has only tossed 55.2 IP this season, but the rookie is showing a ton of promise. So far this season, he is dramatically overperforming his advanced numbers. A 2.10 ERA compared to a 4.07 FIP is screaming regression candidate. I do think there will be some regression, but not enough to be considered fools gold. The main reason is because of a couple of the lefty's under the hood stats.



I love the extension, which makes everything play like it's been thrown harder than the actual velocity, and I love the breaking pitch spin. Like Burnes, he throws a fastball 50% of the time to set up back breaking off-speed pitches. The Sweeper especially has been lethal, inducing a .086 BA. The Change Up is similarly effective with an induced .121 BA. I believe the stuff can sustain Abbot's success.


Burnes' success against Cincy paired with a young stud pitcher going up against an inept offense smells like an under.




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