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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

Best Bet 8/6/2023

Atlanta Braves OVER 4.5 Runs

DK +105

FD +105

BSB +105

Best Bet Season Record 13-12

Darryl Webb AP

The Atlanta Braves as a team are slashing .270/.343/.499. They also have a positive baserunning BsR, which is a stat that takes into account how many runs they get from Stolen Bases, avoiding Double Plays, and their baserunning on the whole. They also strike out the 8th best rate in MLB at 21.3% and they walk at a 10th best 8.9% rate. The Braves rake. The Braves Bang. They Slug. They Swipe. They Get on Base. They're an absolute wagon of an offense. Atlanta set the record for most pre-All Star Break homeruns for a team at 167 with 5 games before the break. They're the 2nd fastest team ever to 200 home runs, needing only 104 games. 9 players have at least 10 home runs on the season and 5 have at least 20. It's a lineup that can kill you from anywhere.

Even when facing a good pitcher like Justin Steele, it just hasn't mattered all that much. The Braves themselves has scored at least 5 runs in 64 games this season, meaning they're doing it 59% of the time on the season. For a more recent sample size, Since July 1st the Braves have scored at least 5 runs in 17 out of the 27 games they've played. Good for a 63% clip. It's obscene.

Justin Steele is a good pitcher, undeniably so. A 2.65 ERA with a 3.11 FIP speaks for itself. He also keeps traffic down with a 1.13 WHIP. Take a look at the Baseball Savant.

He has shown a tendency of getting roughed up by good offenses. Cincy and Boston have put up 17 runs against him in 3 games against, and as good as those offenses are, they are not the Braves, who just chewed up and spit out Lucas Giolito, Patrick Sandoval, and Freddy Peralta. They've got Baseball Savant stupidity going on.

Ronald Acuna Jr.

Matt Olson

Austin Riley

Sean Murphy

Ozzie Albies

If Ozzie Albies is the worst under the hood hitter in your top 5, and he's still slashing .257/.317/.505 with 25 home runs, it makes sense why they score as much as they do, regardless of the quality of pitcher on the mound. This Best Bet feels good.

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