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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley


Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens UNDER 43.5

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers OVER 50.5

NFL Best Bet Season Record: 65-66-6

Zay and Likely

The best weekend of the year requires the best bets of the year. Let's rock.

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens UNDER 43.5

DK -108

FD -110

I think CJ Stroud is fantastic, he has a bright future. Unfortunately for him, the modern West Coast offense gets eaten alive by Mike MacDonald's athletic, built through the middle defense. Specifically, the Shanahan branch of the West Coast coaching tree gets eaten alive. There have been moments of success coming from Cleveland and the Rams, but that success was predicated on the fact that McVay and Stefanski run different brands of an iconic offense. McVay has implemented Earhardt-Perkins Power Runs out of West Coast 11 personnel look, which is a fantastic way to keep defenses off balance and take advantage of the Nickel and Dime secondaries that get featured against 11 personnel.

Stefanski comes from the Kubiak tree and he believes in Tight Ends and jumbo sets. It's still West Coast team that attacks space, but in a more 90's, downhill style.

All of this is to say the Texans, 49ers, and Dolphins got absolutely bludgeoned by the Ravens defense, and those teams all run a similar, modern, athletes in space, point guard QB centric West Coast offense. The Texans have the best OLine of the bunch but all 3 are the weakest aspects of the offense. I see a number closer to 9 than 21 from Houston because of this. Without Tank Dell and Noah Brown, life is going to be hard on Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz to carry the day against the number 1 defense against receivers in the NFL. Every throw is an outside the numbers throw because Justin Madubuike, Roquan Smith, Patrick Queen, and Kyle Hamilton erase the middle of the field. I think Houston is going to have grind points out and pray for some coverage busts to score

The other aspect of this best bet is that the Texans defense is also awesome. Wil Anderson Jr is a monster and is the leader of quite the wrecking crew with Derek Barnett and Jonathan Greenard on the defensive line. Blake Cashman had an incredible break out season as the mike linebacker, and the secondary is carried by an incredibly strong corner room. Derek Stingley Jr. is a lockdown corner, while Stephen Nelson and Desmond King II are great at field side corner and nickel respectively. They are weak at safety, so expect Isaiah Likely to make some big plays, and it's fair to expect the Ravens run game to take advantage of a in total weak linebacker room, even one including Cashman.

All in all, this should be a grind of a game where two defenses hit hard and make plays, but one where the Ravens control the ball and make life difficult for an upstart Texans team.

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers OVER 50.5

DK -112

FD -110

This analysis is a lot easier. These two offense are awesome. The 49ers backend scares me which means there are points to be had. The Packers defense has been bad all year, aside from the games where Kenny Clark and Rashan Gary decided their opponent's QB does not get to throw without being pressured.

As long as Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams are on the field, the 49ers will score about 30-38 points. Matt LaFleur coached teams average 29 PPG in the playoffs. OVER OVER OVER.

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