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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

2023 DIVISIONAL ROUND BEST BETS: SUNDAY

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions OVER 49.5

Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills(-2.5)

NFL BEST BET SEASON RECORD: 65-68-6

He is Tall
Mark Konezny, USA TODAY

2 More Games, 2 More Best Bets


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions OVER 49.5

DK -105

FD -118


Listen I could go on abut schemes and all that, but I'm just gonna name some dudes for both teams


Detroit Lions: Jared Goff, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams, Frank Ragnow, Taylor Decker, and Penei Sewell


Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rachaad White, Tristan Wirfs, and Luke Goedeke.


Just a ton of dudes on offense for both of these teams. Love the over against two defenses with suspect backends.



Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills(-2.5)

DK -110

FD -122


With two teams that play against each other as often as these to d, you begin to look for granular advantages that lead to wins. Obviously KC's offense is not what it has been in year's, making them more vulnerable than ever before. They're playing a road playoff game for the first time in the Mahomes era, which will give Buffalo a massive advantage considering the Bills are 8-1 at home in all games this season.


Where I think this game will be won is the Buffalo run game against the KC rush defense. Buffalo has run the ball much better and much more patiently than in year's past, providing balance to their offense that they have been lacking. They rank 7th in Rushing DVOA on the season, along with having the 3rd best adjusted line yards by DVOA in the NFL. Adjusted line yards is there to give the big uglies credit, and they deserve it since Buffalo is stuffed at the lowest rate in the league at 12% of all rushes.


All of this rushing prowess is massive because while KC has an awesome pass defense that takes advantage of QB's that can't handle Steve Spagnuolo cooking exotic play calls up, they are quite terrible against the run. They rank 27th in the NFL in rush defense DVOA. Buffalo has a real opportunity to dominate time of possession and force KC to win with their receivers, which they have been proven incapable of doing. These teams are incredibly tight in terms of quality, so having a big advantage in the run game the way Buffalo does, especially with under center runs, is a huge determining factor in playoff games.


Buffalo all the way this time.



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