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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley



FAVORITE: Seattle Seahawks @Detroit Lions(-4.5)

UNDERDOG: Los Angeles Chargers @ Tennessee Titans(ML)

OVER: Green Bay Backers @ Atlanta Falcons 40.5

UNDER: New York Jets @ Dallas Cowboys 38.5

NFL Best Bet Season Record: 4-3

AP Photo/Ed Zurga

Favorite: Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions(-4.5)

DK -110

FD -110

We're talking EPA per play here folks when it comes to these Best Bets. Week 1 is important not to overreact to, but we can still learn things about teams, especially ones that have suffered key injuries. The Seattle Seahawks are one of the 4 worst performing defenses by EPA per play, allowing roughly 0.6 Dropback EPA/Play Allowed and 0.0 Rush EPA/play Allowed. Meanwhile Detroit allowed only roughly 0.0 Dropback EPA/play and -0.3 Rush EPA/play.

Offensively its a similar boat. Seattle has a negative number in booth Rush and Dropback EPA/play whiel Detroit is at least neutral in Rush EPA/play and positive in Dropback EPA/play.

With all that, the biggest reason to back Detroit is that Seattle is without both starting tackles, Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas. That is itself is insurmountable against average teams, let alone the mighty kneecap eaters.

Underdog: Los Angeles Chargers @ Tennessee Titans(ML)

DK +120

FD +124

I love a Vrabel coached team in a home opener as a dog. I also love that the Chargers are without Austin Ekeler for this bet to hit. They're also going to be without Eric Kendricks and that means the run fit will likely be a mess, and frankly has been as long as Brandon Staley has been there. Derrick Henry is going be able to run well which will let Tennessee's pass catchers to beat up on the Chargers croners not named Asante Jr.

I expect Tennessee to bounce back in a big way in their home opener.

OVER: Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons 40.5

DK -110

FD -105

We have two very well coached offenses against two defenses that probably aren't as good as they showed in week 1 due to the matchups they got to take advantage of. The only thing to be concerned with with this OVER is Atlanta lacking any explosive plays, but with their weapons that shouldn't be a problem.

UNDER: New York Jets @ Dallas Cowboys 38.5

DK -110

FD -105

I don't expect Dallas to repeat its defensive scoring from week 1 and I also think both of these defenses are top 5 potential for a whole season. Just awesome units filled with awesome players. The Jets are facing a mediocre QB in Dak and the Cowboys might kill Zach Wilson with what Dan Quinn will have dialed up for him. This game should be a brutal one offensively with only CeeDee Lamb or Breece Hall running wild being the one worry.

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