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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

2023 NFL BEST BETS: WEEK 4

FAVORITE, UNDEDOG, OVER, AND UNDER

FAVORITE: Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions(-9.5)

UNDERDOG: New York Jets(+2.5) @ Denver Broncos

OVER: Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons(41.5)

UNDER: New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots(39.0)

NFL Best Bet Season Record: 16-11

Stroud Boys
Jon Shapley/Houston Chronicle



FAVORITE: Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions(-9.5)

DK -112

FD -108


This is a set it and forget type of game. Just an easy Best Bet. The Lions are really damn good, 3rd in DVOA in the whole NFL, coming off a pseudo-bye, at home, hosting the 28th ranked team by DVOA in the Carolina Panthers. The Lions are also the 6th best rushing attack going up against the weakest rushing defense in the whole NFL. Montgomery's going to eat, Goff's going to light it up off of Play Action, this is a no brainer for me. It's also fun that Detroit is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 and 3-1 on the season.


Just as a throw away, Detroit's defense is very quietly incredible and is the 5th best by DVOA in the NFL, and Carolina's sitting as the 29th best offense. Should be domination.


UNDERDOG: New York Jets(+2.5) @ Denver Broncos

DK -110

FD -110


This game stinks. I'm plugging my nose and giving the people a dog in a week that there isn't a single dog worth betting this week in my opinion. Obviously there will be an upset out there since it's the NFL, but I was struggling to find a pick. Luckily for me, the Denver Broncos have a putrid team defense and that makes betting against them the easiest thing in the world. What I like is that in Denver last season Zach Wilson handed the ball of to Breece Hall and he carved up a good Denver defense. Now he gets to carve up a poor Denver defense.



OVER: Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons(41.5)

DK -112

FD -110


This is just too low. I know, I know, Desmond Ridder is wanting to turn the ball over 6% of all drop backs. This is true. HOWEVER, Houston has a poor rush defense, clocking in at 28th in the NFL. The Falcons have the 10th best by DVOA and I see Bijan and Allgeier eating against an inexperienced unit. They'll be able to move the ball and in all likelihood punch it in.


The great news is that Houston has the 5th best passing attack by DVOA and Atlanta has teh 28th ranked passing defense. It's screaming 23-20 minimum for either team.



UNDER: New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots(39.0)

DK -110

FD -120

I hate these teams
Sicko Football

What??? You want actual analysis???? You want me to tell you how we have 8th and 9th defense facing off against the 19th(Holy **** The Patriots are still not bottom Quarter in the League Offensively) and 22nd offense???? How both teams are negative in all aspects of Offensive EPA/Play?????? How both QB's have negative EPA/Play while also having a negative completion percentage above expected?????? And how yet with all that they somehow aren't bottom 5 QB's by any of these metrics???????????????? THAT SOMEHOW THE SAINTS ARE WORSE ON OFFENSE BECAUSE DESPITE ALL OF THEIR TALENT ALONG THE OFFENSIVE LINE AND OUTSIDE THEY RUN THE MOST VANILLA OFFENSIVE COORDINATION IN THE ENTIRE NFL?????????????????????????????? THAT THE PATRIOTS ARE ALLOWING A PRESSURE RATE OF 37.7% ON DROP BACKS AND RHAMONDRE STEVENSON AND EZEKIEL ELLIOT ARE AVERAGING ONLY 2.3 YARDS BEFORE CONTACT???????????? THAT NEITHER TEAM HAS SCORED 20 YET???????????????????



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