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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

2023 NFL BEST BETS: WEEK 6

FAVORITE, UNDEDOG, OVER, AND UNDER

FAVORITE: Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars(-4.0)

UNDERDOG: Seattle Seahawks(+3.0) @ Cincinnati Bengals

OVER: Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears 43.5

UNDER: New Orleans Saints @ Houston Texans 42.0

NFL Best Bet Season Record: 20-13

Josh Allen and the Jags
Bob Self/Florida Times-Union

FAVORITE: Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars(-4.0)

DK -4.0 -110

FD -3.5 -118


Best Bets follow trends and recent history. In Week one the Jags beat the Colts handedly, even with the coop and score making the game look a lot closer than it actually was. Since then Jacksonville has woken up with back to back London wins after back to back disappointing losses to the Chiefs and Texans. Their defense is flying around and the offense is humming. They also have a sneaky massive advantage in this game; The Colts don't win in Jacksonville.


The Jacksonville Jaguars have beat the Indianapolis Colts 7 straight times in Duvall County and have outscored them 232-104. That's through some very, very lean years for Jacksonville as well. You've got a team that's seeking out establishing themselves in the AFC against a team that just does not win in their stadium, regardless of circumstance, give me the Jags.



UNDERDOG: Seattle Seahawks(+3.0) @ Cincinnati Bengals

DK +3.0 -112

FD +2.5 +100


While the last we saw the Bengals they started to look like themselves against the Arizona Cardinals, I have to see it more than once and against a good team to believe it. The Seahawks lone loss came against the Rams in week 1, and have a very impressive win against the Detroit Lions, along with running it up on Carolina and thrashing the Giants on Monday Nigh Football for all to see. Seattle's strength is obviously their offense which operates at a high level with highly skilled weapons at every position on the field. They rank 8th in DVOA in offense and that includes the outright stinker in week 1. Their defense is siting at 14th, and interestingly enough their pass defense has been poor, ranking 25th by DVOA, while their rush defense has been outstanding ranking 2nd in the league. I think that as the season goes along we're going to see the pass defense positively regress, especially since that's where most of their talent investment has been. Tariq Woolen, Devon Witherspoon, Michael Jackson, and Jamal Adams aren't the legion of boom, but they are a great secondary that's going to recover numbers wise from getting shredded by Stafford and Goff.


The biggest factor will be if they are able to make Burrow uncomfortable, which I have my doubts about. The Bengals offensive is in the upper part of the bottom 3rd when it comes to offensive line play. That is leagues better than what the Seahawks last faced in the New York Giants tier of their own caliber offensive line. The Seahawks have had the pleasure of facing the Panthers and Giants and are only 14th in pressure rate in the NFL. For reference their pressure rate, 25.4% includes the 25 pressures on 40 drop backs against, which is an absurd number to have buoying your advanced metrics. Uchenna Nwusu is going to need to have a big game off the EDGE for Seattle.


Also, Cincy's defense has regressed quite mightily. The departures of Vonn Bell are Jessie Bates are showing up with a weaker pass defense than in past years, and the rush defense ranks 30th by DVOA. Seattle is set to Charles Cross back and that should allow Kenneth Walker to run rampant.


All in all, Seattle is really good this season, honestly they're even better than last year. Also, also, since 2018 the Seahawks are 16-4 in the Eastern Time Zone. They travel very well.



OVER: Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears 43.5

DK -110

FD -112


Listen, we have two defenses lacking talent, two QB's that if anything, they can put up points against poor defenses. I think we can see a lot of points out of both teams, even without Justin Jefferson on the field.


Simple, straightforward, we just 24-20 and that's more than achievable with these defenses.



UNDER: New Orleans Saints @ Houston Texans 42.0

DK U 42.0 -112

FD U 42.5 -110



The Saints hate the over. Just so, so much. This week I think they'll hit the under by flustering rookie CJ Stroud and getting him out of rhythm and off his 1st read with physical play on the outside. They have an advantage up front and without Tank Dell in the lineup, I think the Saints have a clear advantage in the secondary.

It's just setting up for an ugly win for NO, and frankly even if they don't win, they aren't scoring enough to cover anything right now.



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