FAVORITE, UNDEDOG, OVER, AND UNDER
FAVORITE: Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks(-8.5)
UNDERDOG: Detroit Lions(+3.0) @ Baltimore Ravens
OVER: Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles 51.5
UNDER: Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts 41.0
NFL Best Bet Season Record: 22-17
FAVORITE: Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks(-8.5)
DK -108
FD -110
On top of this best bet being analytically driven thanks to the Seahawks ranking 10th in total DVOA while the Cardinals sit at 25th, last season the Seahawks beat the Cardinals by 10 twice in 2022. The Seahawks are a better football team in 2023 than in 2022, while the Cardinals have regressed with general roster departure and sub-par QB play. What I love about this game in particular is that the Cardinals rank 31st against the pass and that should allow for DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to run wild in the opposing secondary.
While Arizona does rank 12th in offensive DVOA, a lot of that is thanks to moving the ball at will against the Giants and Cowboys. They have not eclipsed 20 points in any other game this season and have lost every game since week 4 by at least two touchdowns.
So yeah, this is screaming a cover for the Seahawks.
UNDERDOG: Detroit Lions(+3.0) @ Baltimore Ravens
DK -118
FD -110
CJ Stroud, 1 legged Joe Burrow, Gardner Minshew, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Kenny Pickett, Ryan Tannehill.
Those are the Quarterbacks that the Ravens have faced so far in 2023. They beat up on the Texans in CJ Stroud's first game, they allowed Joe Burrow on one leg to put up 24 and let them creep back into the game, they lose to Gardner Minshew and the Colts in overtime because they failed to put them away, They beat up on 5th round rookie Dorian Thompson Robinson, they fail to put away Kenny Pickett after he had an atrocious game, and they almost let Ryan Tannehill and Malik Willis tie the game in London.
The Ravens for all of their advanced numbers loving them, feel like paper tigers. they're 6th in DVOA with a 10 in offense and 2 in defense, and just don't feel convinced by it. The analytics aren't catching them allowing the Colts and Steelers to catch them and beat them after they were dominating them all game. The receiver drops are a massive issue, and I don't trust their corners.
These Ravens that can never find an easy way to win and will allow teams that they are much better than to beat them are now facing the class of the NFL, the Detroit Lions.
Detroit is 2nd in DVOA, ranking 4th in offense and 3rd in defense. Their lone loss is an overtime loss to a good Seahawks team and aside from a close game in Arrowhead that they pulled out, they've been thumping their opponents. They're winning games by an average of 9.2 pts, which is good for 5th in the NFL, only behind the 49ers, Bills, Dolphins, and Chiefs.
Goff is playing out of his mind, the offensive line is incredible, the receivers are versatile and the backs force different body types to be on the field with burners like Jameson Williams and Khalif Raymond. And oh yeah, the defense is just great at every level. I'm gonna bite some ankles with the motor city kitties.
OVER: Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles 51.5
DK -108
FD -105
Come on. I mean come on. #1 offense and #7 offense by DVOA. The Dolphins defense is 27th by DVOA, mainly by two very very bad performances against the Chargers and Bills, but still capable of getting torched despite solid performances in other games. The Eagles rank 13th in total defensive DVOA, but very importantly they rank 20th in pass defense DVOA.
All of this means is that the Eagles will be able to impose their will on the ground while Tua and his 2.3 second release time will be bale to neutralize the pass rush while getting the ball to Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill.
Let's have some points.
UNDER: Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts 41.0
DK -108
FD -108
This is a plug your nose and take it bet. The Browns Defense is monstrous and should eat against a very mediocre Colts offense. The Browns offense is semi-functional with Deshaun Watson and is non functional without him. This game is sicko football hours but if you like sicko football, Myles Garrett is poised for a explosion in terms of a total sack game.
Plug your nose and take it.
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