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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley



FAVORITE: Baltimore Ravens(-10.0) @ Arizona Cardinals

UNDERDOG: Cincinnati Bengals(+5.5) @ San Francisco 49ers

OVER: Houston Texans @ Carolina Panthers OVER 43.5

UNDER: Atlanta Falcons @ Tennessee Titans UNDER 35.0

NFL Best Bet Season Record: 24-21

Lamar Jackson TD Run

FAVORITE: Baltimore Ravens(-10.0) @ Arizona Cardinals

DK -10 -105

FD -9.5 -118

I could throw out all of the stats that show the staggering difference in the quality between these teams. The stats that show just how much better the Ravens are than everybody else. None of those matter. None of those matter because Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens are 16-1 against the NFC in his starts. What that tells me is how much his unique skill set is impossible to recreate in practice and the only way to get used to it is to face it over and over again. Give me what should be a single up the middle best bet.

UNDERDOG: Cincinnati Bengals(+5.5) @ San Francisco 49ers

DK -108

FD -106

I know, all the stats point towards San Francisco. What those stats don't show is recent events. The Brock Purdy concussion thing is incredibly bizarre. A diagnosis and a clearing within 3 days feels bad in a multitude of ways, but I don't think those symptoms are why he was downright horrendous against the Browns and the blitz. Obviously Deebo is out. Trent Williams and Christian McCaffery are not guarantees to go and even if they do go they are not close to their usual selves. Their defensive backfield was very poor against a Justin Jefferson-less Vikings and it's not getting easier against the Bengals, who are coming off of a bye and should only be looking healthier and healthier and better and better going forward.

Brock Purdy's play against Cleveland an the majority of Minnesota showed that when a DC does the unexpected and are messing with what the answers on plays are regularly, you can get to Purdy and make him ineffective. I would put Lou Anarumo in the same category of DC as Jim Schwartz and Brian Flores, so expect more struggles from a hobbled 49ers Team.

OVER: Houston Texans @ Carolina Panthers OVER 43.5

DK -108

FD -110

While Houston's offense has been efficient and good, their defense has been a little lackluster, mostly just because of a lack of roster talent. Carolina's actually scored the most points in their division, hitting at least 21 points in 3 games this season. Them losing as much as they have has lead to this number being relatively low, but I really am expecting a 24-20 type game where both offenses look solid and both defenses struggle a bit.

UNDER: Atlanta Falcons @ Tennessee Titans UNDER 35.0/35.5

DK U 35. -110

FD U 35.5 -115

I know, I know. This is a sicko bet for people who like sicko football. I won't hide from how much I love coffin corner punts and fundamental defense. But this is different from my forays into Iowa and the way they warp reality around them. These are two teams with fundamentally sound defenses that have star power at important positions, facing Desmond Ridder and Will Levis+Malik Willis. Come on, I mean, come on. Even if Atlanta puts up 20 I have no confidence in Tennessee scoring more than 13 in this game.

Also unders this low are my favorite bets in the world, I have no basis for why I love them so much besides they're hilarious to me.

Let's have a day.

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