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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

2023 NFL Preview: NFC South

Team Totals, Player Props and other Season Long Picks


Yahoo Sports


Atlanta Falcons

O/U: 8.5

Super Bowl: +5500

NFC Champion: +2200

NFC South Winner: +210

USA Today

2022 Record: 7-10(9-8 ATS)

2022 Offense: 15th(DVOA 13th)

2022 Defense: 23rd(DVOA 30th)

2022 Special Teams: 5th(DVOA 5th)


Free Agency


Additions: CB Mike Hughes, CB Jeff Okudah, TE Jonnu Smith, WR Mack Hollins, IDL Calais Campbell, LB Kaden Ellis, LT Ethan Greenridge, IDL David Onyemata, WR Penny Hart, LB Andre Smith, EDGE Bud Dupree, CB Breon Borders, CB Tre Flowers, S Jessie Bates III, LB Tae Davis, WR Scottie Miller, RT Joshue Miles, IDL Joe Gaziano, QB Taylor Heinicke


Re-signings: RT Tyler Vrabel, LS Liam McCullough, TE Parker Hesse, CB Cornell Armstrong, WR Khadarel Hodghe, FB Keith Smith, P Bradley Pinion, RT Kaleb McGary, EDGE Lorenzo Carter, RG Chris Lindstrom


Departures: WR Emeka Emezie, IDL Derric kTangelo, IDL David Anenih, TE Mycole Pruitt, LB Nick Kwiatkoski, LS Beau Brinkley, IDL Vincent Taylor, S Erik Harris, LB Rashaan Evans, CB Casey Heyward, CB Isaiah Oliver, RG Colby Gossett, CB Mike Ford, CB Rashad Fenton, S Jovante Moffat, RT Elijah Wilkinson, IDL Matt DIckerson, IDL Abdullah Anderson, RRT Chuma Edoga, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, QB MArcus Mariota, RT Germain Ifedi, IDL Jalen Dalton, WR Damiere Byrd, TE Anthony Firsker, IDL Jaleel Johnson


Draft

Round 1: Bijan Robinson(8), Texas RB

Round 2: Matthew Bergeron(38), Syracuse OL

Round 3: Zach Harrison(75), Ohio State EDGE

Round 4: Clark Phillips III(113), Utah CB

Round 7: Demarcco Hellams(224), Alabama S, Jovaughn Gwyn(225) South Carolina OG



Undrafted Free Agents

LB Mike Jones Jr, LSU

IDL Ikenna Enechukwu, Rice

RB Carlos Washington Jr, Southeast Louisiana

WR Justin Marshall, Buffalo

WR Xavier Malone, Henderson State

WR Keilahn Harris, Oklahoma Baptist



2023 Preview


The Atlanta Falcons are a throwback and a half. They run their offense like it's 1995 and I'm here for it. 58% outside zone runs and this was before Bijan was drafted. This was because they wanted Desmond Ritter sitting and learning. Arthur Smith didn't want to throw him to the wolves and what we got was smash mouth football without a feature back. Bijan is the cherry on top of what I'd consider a loaded offense at this point. Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson are freaks. The offensive line is outstanding. Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary were the best right side of any offensive line in the NFL in 2022, while Jake Matthews keeps holding down the blindside. They have no weak link and now they have more than Tyler Allgeier, who isn't even a bad back, he's just not explosive, and old man Cordarelle Patterson won't need to carry the load in the running game. It all comes down to Desmond Ridder, who I believe can play well in Arthur Smith's offense. He won't be asked to do too much and Arthur Smith will scheme him to his strengths. He's only 24, and taken only 270 Snaps so far, so I still consider him an unknown, but he was a major reason why the Bearcats were even in the CFB Playoff conversation. I'm feeling a top 10 offense in the A this season.


The Defense is going to be better. Much like the Bears and other teams with tons of cap space, they went out and got some vets to provide stability. Jessie Bates III is an All-Pro Safety, Calais Campbell is one of the best IDL's of the past decade, and Bud Dupree, Kaden Ellis, and Jeff Okudah are pro's pros. There's a ton of help for AJ Terrell, Dee Alford, and Grady Jarrett for the first time in a long time, and that alone should take this unit from bottom 3 to only bottom half.


OVER OR UNDER

Over. I think the Falcons are winning the NFC South and I think they do it with at least 10 wins.


Player Prop

Kyle Pitts OVER 4.5 REC TD's is at +100. GO GO GO



New Orleans Saints

O/U: 9.5

Super Bowl: +4000

NFC Champion: +1700

NFC South Winner: +130

USA Today



2022 Record: 7-10(7-10 ATS)

2022 Offense: 22nd(DVOA 22nd)

2022 Defense: 9th(DVOA 8th)

2022 Special Teams: 29th(DVOA 25th)


Free Agency


Additions: TE Jesse James, RT Storm Norton, IDL Khalen Saunders, IDL Nathan Shepherd, RB Jamaal Williams, TE Foster Moreau, QB Derek Carr, S Jonathan Abram, CB Lonnie Johnson Jr


Re-signings: LT Yasir Durant, LB Andrew Dowell, RG Calvin Throckmorton, P Blake Gillikin, WR Keith Kirkwood, TE Juwan Johnson, IDL Malcolm Roach, LB Ty Summers, CB Isaac Yiadom, S JT Gray, EDGE Tanah Kpassagnon, K Wil Lutz, LG Andrus Peat, QB Jameis WInston, WR Michael Thomas


Departures: LB Chase Hansen, IDL Albert Huggins, RB David Johnson, TE Nick Vannett, CB Chris Harris Jr, RB Dwayne Washington, S Daniel Sorensen, RB Mark Ingram, CB PJ Williams, WR Jarvis Landry, WR Deonte Harry, WR Marquez Callaway, TE Adam Trautman, S Justin Evans, EDGE Kentavius Street, LB Kaden Ellis, LT Ethan Greenridge, David Onyemata, Shy Tuttle, QB Andy Dalton, IDL Marcus Davenport


Draft

Round 1: Bryan Breese(29), Clemson IDL

Round 2: Isaiah Foskey(40), Notre Dame EDGE

Round 3: Kendre Miller(71), TCU RB

Round 4: Nick Saldiveri(103), Old Dominion OT, Jake Haener(127) Fresno State QB

Round 5: Jordan Howden(146), Minnesota S

Round 6: AT Terry(195), Wake Forest WR


Undrafted Free Agents

OG Alex Philstrom, Ilinois

LB Anfernee Orji, Vanderbilt

DB Anthony Johnson, Virginia

K Blake Grupe, Notre Dame

IDL Jerron Cage, Ohio State

TE Joel Wilson, Central Michigan

P Lou Hedley, Miami(FL)

WR Malik Flowers, Montana

OT Mark Evans II, Arkansas- Pine Bluff

LB Nick Anderson, Tulane

RB SaRodorick Thompson Jr, Texas Tech

WR Shaquan Davis, South Carolina State

WR Sy Barnett, Davenport




2023 Preview


The New Orleans Saints are in No-Man's-Land. A franchise too proud and competitive to take the poison pill and eat dead cap to truly rebuild, especially since that's what their bitter rivals The Falcons just did and Mickey Loomis is not going to let them get the upper hand as long as he's involved with the Saints. The offense is in a weird spot and I'm not sure if its play-calling or personnel. They ran the ball a ton, but were not very good at it, ranking 19th in EPA per play with a -.094 EPA/play for their entire rushing offense. Designed runs were worse at -.108 EPA/Play. I'm not sure if that was scheme or Kamara taking a step back in production, or an offensive line regressing as a unit. I do think its a combination of both. Sean Payton drew up a great offense and that's no longer there. What is there are some proven commodities in the back half of their careers, and sometimes that's just really hard to count on. Andrus Peat has been banged up of late, and already had an injury in training camp and Ryan Ramcyzk has missed games each of the last two seasons. Trevor Penning I have no idea how to feel about on the blindside since he's more of a mauler and can see him struggling with speed rushes, which are becoming more and more common in the NFL.


Another offensive issue are the skill position players. On paper, they should be a solid unit. The issue comes in with the fact that Michael Thomas hasn't really played football in two years, the other receiver Rashid Shaheed has only played 300 snaps in the NFL. It's just not a ton of skill position experience out wide. Chris Olave, Michale Thomas, and Rashid Shaheed are great on paper, but it just is a massive unknown. The same goes for the running backs. Jamaal Williams is a short yardage king, but that's all he really is. Kendre Miller is a rookie and shouldn't be relied upon to be a bell cow. Alvin Kamara is suspended for the first 6 games. It's just a bizarre group of ball carriers and pass catchers, adn we know what Derek Carr is as a QB. He's fine. I do think he's in a worse environment ironically. The Raiders have a better ball carrying room on the whole and the offensive line is comparable.


The defense is where I'm concerned for the Saints. They're not bad players, but they're players who've taken tons of snaps over the years. Cam Jordan, Marcus Lattimore, Marcus Maye, Tyrann Mathieu and Demario Davis are all good players. They're just old players, and old players tend to start breaking down. It's just hard to imagine a top 10 unit while relying on guys who've taken just so many snaps in their careers with much depth behind them.


OVER OR UNDER

Under, unfortunately. They've just lost too much and are finally having to deal with putting off all of those deals and converting them into signing bonuses.


Player Prop

Chris Olave OVER 75.5 Receptions is at -110 and feels like stealing




Carolina Panthers

O/U: 7.5

Super Bowl: +6000

NFC Champion: +3000

NFC South Winner: +360

ESPN


2022 Record: 7-10(9-8 ATS)

2022 Offense: 20th(DVOA 27th)

2022 Defense: 19th(DVOA 25th)

2022 Special Teams: 4th(DVOA 8th)



Free Agency


Additions: WR Adam Thielen, RG Justin McCray, QB Andy Dalton, IDL Shy Tuttle, S Vernon Scott, WR DJ Chark, WR Damiere Byrd, IDL Jalen Dalton, RB Miles Sanders, S Eric Rowe, LB Kamu Gruger-Hill, IDL Deshawn Williams, S Vonn Bell, TE Hayden Hurst


Re-signed: LB Shaq Thompson, TE Ian Thomas, RT Cam Erving, C Bradley Bozeman, JJ Jansen, IDL Henry Anderson, LG Michael Jordan, K Eddy Pineiro, FB Giovanni Ricci, S Sam Franklin, TE Stephen Sullivan


Departures: Matt Ioannidis, LG Pat Elflein, LB Damien Wilson, WR Andre Roberts, WR Rashard Higgins, CB TJ Carrie, S Sean Chandler, CB Huston Burris, LB Joel Iyieguniwe, WR Preston Williams, CB Justin Layne, QB Sam Darnold, K Zane Gonzalez, CB Myles Hartsfield, WR DJ Moore, RB D'onta Foreman, QB PJ Walker, LB Cory Littleton


Draft

Round 1: Bryce Young(1), Alabama QB

Round 2: Jonathan Mingo(39), Ole Miss WR

Round 3: DJ Johnson(80), Oregon EDGE

Round 4: Chandler Zavala(114), NC State Guard

Round 5: Jammie Robinson(145), Florida Sate S


Undrafted Free Agents

RB Tiyon Evans, Louisville

RB Camerun Peoples, Appalachian State

IDL Jalen Redmond, Oklahoma

CB Rejzohn Wright, Oregon State



2023 Preview


The Panthers did the right thing!! They chose a competitive future over obstinate mediocrity!!!! Trading up for Bryce Young was smart, and should be applauded. They have a future and a clear plan. I think we're going to see a team take massive strides, but it might not come in the form of record. Offensively, while gaining Bryce Young, they had to trade DJ Moore and that's a decision that had to have been hard to make considering DJ Moore's talent. The receivers aren't bad, they're just average. DJ Chark and Adam Thielen are proven vets and Jonathan Mingo has high upside and recent Ole Miss receivers have all hit. I think a comparable group would be the Patriots, but even then the Patriots have a deeper, more talented group of B-B+ receivers. The run game should THUMP. The offensive numbers aren't really indicative of the overall quality the team had last season. After firing Matt Rhule they were a good football team, and they ran the hell out of the ball. I see no reason for that run game to fall off, especially since they added Miles Sanders to the group.


The defense is a bunch of ballers. I think they'll be a top 10 unit. The pass rush is a bunch of sickos, led by Derrick Brown and Brian Burns. Shaq Thompson and Frankie Luvu are a great linebacking duo. Vonn Bell becomes an instant upgrade at Safety and one that will raise the level of the secondary on his own. Jaycee Horn is a shut down corner and that will allow Donte Jackson and Jeremy Chinn to receive help over the top.


OVER OR UNDER

The optimist in me says over. The realist says under, the defense will keep them competitive.


PLAYER PROP

Hammer the OVER on Brian Burns 10.75 +130



Tampa Bay Buccaneers

O/U: 6.5

Super Bowl: +7500

NFC Champion: +5000

NFC South Champion: +750

Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports


2022 Record: 8-9(4-12-1 ATS)

2022 Offense: 25th(DVOA 16th)

2022 Defense: 13th(DVOA 13th)

2022 Special Teams: 9th(DVOA 31st)


Free Agency


Additions: LG Matt Feiler, K Chase McLaughlin, QB Baker Mayfield, QB John Wolford, IDL Greg Gaines, S Ryan Neal, RB Chase Edmonds


Re-signed: LB Lavonte David, WR Russell Gage, LG Aaron Stinnie, IDL Pat O'Connor, IDL Deadrin Senat, CB Dee Delaney, CB Jemel Dean, EDGE Anthony Nelson, LB JJ Russell, LB Cam Gill, LG Nick Leverett


Losses: QB Tom Brady, IDL Akiem Hicks, RB Leonard Fournette, WR Julio Jones, IDL William Gholston, TE Cameron Brate, K Ryan Succop, TE Kyle Rudolph, RB Giovanni Bernard, EDGE Carl Nassib, S Logan Ryan, LT Donovan Smith, QB Blaine Gabbert, S Mike Edwards, WR Breshad Perriman, LG Genard Avery, WR Scottie Miller, IDL Rakeem Nunez-Roches, LT Josh Wells, Keanu Wells, RG Shaq Mason, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting


Draft

Round 1: Calijah Kancey(19), Pittsburgh IDL

Round 2: Cody Mauch(48), North Dakota State OT

Round 3: Yaya Diaby(82), Louisville EDGE

Round 5: Sirvocea Dennis(153) Pittsburgh LB, Payne Durham(171) Purdue TE

Round 6: Josh Hayes(181), Kansas State CB, Trey Palmer(191), Nebraska WR, Jose Ramirez(196), Eastern Michigan EDGE


Undrafted Free Agents

RB Sean Tucker, Syracuse

WR Rakim Jarrett, Maryland

WR Kade Warner, Kansas State

LB Jeremy Banks, Tennessee

S Christian Izien, Rutgers

S Kaevon Merriweather, Iowa




2023 Preview


The good news for Buccaneers fans is that they have some foundational players to execute this rebuild upon. Triston Wirfs is awesome and will be for a long time. Jemel Dean and Antoine Winfield are high level secondary players.


The rest is bleak. The Browns broke Baker. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are heading towards the wrong side of 30. Devin White has regressed heavily in recent years and while Lavonte David is a leader, he's also heading towards the wrong side of 30.


The good news is that Drake Maye is awesome and will look good in crimson and pewter!!!!!


OVER OR UNDER

Under. It's a necessary step towards a brighter future


Player Prop

Since you're a sicko betting on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, take Lavonte David OVER 115.5 at -110



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