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2024 NFL Preview: AFC East

Writer's picture: Mason DalleyMason Dalley

Team Totals, Player Props and other Season Long Picks

AFC East
Yahoo Sports

Football!!!! NFL Football at that!!! Let's rip some previews



New England Patriots

O/U: 4.5

Super Bowl: +18000

AFC Champion: +10000

AFC East Winner: +2500

Maye
AP Photo/Jeff Roberson



Free Agency


Departures: RG Conor McDermott, WR Matt Slater, IDL Lawrence Guy, CB JC Jackson, TE Mike Gesicki, RT Trent Brown, RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR Devante Parker, CB Jalen Mills, QB Mac Jones, CB Myles Bryant, EDGE Matthew Judon

Re-Signings: RT Michael Onwenu, EDGE Josh Uche, S Kyle Dugger, IDL Christian Barmore, WR Kendrick Bourne, TE Hunter Henry

Additions: WR KJ Osborn, RT Chukwuma Okorafor, RB Antonio Gibson, K Joey Slye, QB Jacoby Brissett


Draft

1 (3): Drake Maye North Carolina QB
2 (5): Ja'Lynn Polk Washington WR
3 (4): Caedan Wallace Penn State OT
4 (3): Layden Robinson Texas A&MOG
4 (10): Javon Baker UCF WR
6 (4): Marcellas Dial South Carolina CB
6 (17): Joe Milton III Tennessee QB
7 (11): Jaheim Bell Florida State TE

2024 Preview


Well, after 22 years, the Patriots are completely without Bill Belichick or Tom Brady. It's an honest to goddness rebuild, one that was 5 years overdue frankly. Development is paramount for the offense. Wins are nice, but Alex Van Pelt proving to be a good play caller and Scott Peters proving to be a good OLine coach are far more important this season than the record is. The development of Drake Maye, Ja'Lynn Polk, Javon Baker, Caedan Wallace, and Javon Baker is the single most important thing for the Patriots this season. That is a group that can become the foundation for a top 10 to 5 offense if nurtured properly. For now, The Patriots just need Jacoby Brissett to hold down the fort while the kid figures it out. It is interesting to note that by the end of the 2023 season, the offensive line had started to play at a mediocre level, which was leaps and bounds from the dreadful, 2nd worst unit in the NFL level they had been through their bye week. A decent line with anything above the worst QB play in the NFL with an offensive coaching staff that has ideas from this decade should get the unit out of bottom 5 territory.


The defense, even without Matthew Judon, will play with piss and vinegar and be schematically sound, as they have maintained a ton of continuity on the roster and coaching staff. Jerod Mayo and Steven Belichick were the brains behind a top 5 unit missing their two best players, and now the task falls to Mayo and DeMarcus Covington to maintain that status. The secondary will spin their coverages creatively, especially with the return of Christian Gonzalez, who will allow, Marcus Jones, Jonathan Jones, Jabril Peppers, and Kyle Dugger to play more freely. Dugger especially will benefit from being able to improvise at the line of scrimmage and allow him to wreak havoc a la his 2022 campaign. Christian Barmore's health is a question, but even without him, the front will be quality. Keion White and Josh Uche will be allowed on the field, and Ja'Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavai are adept at plugging holes opened by offensive lines.


The Patriots are a much better team than their 2023 version. They have a better offense, slightly worse defense, and significantly better coaching staff. They no longer waste roster spots on guys that only play 8 snaps a game. All of that is awesome. The issue is the schedule. NFC West and AFC south is a tough draw, Especially a year where the Bengals have a last place schedule. There's a real chance the Patriots are underdogs in every single game this season. I think the ceiling is 6 wins. the floor is 3, and hopefully the losses are full of covers and Drake Maye flashes.


OVER OR UNDER

4.5 is so low for a team that improved so much in all aspects, they get to 5 by beating the Titans, Cardinals, Jets once, one off the Bills or Dolphins, and then one last one off the Chargers or Rams. of course this is wishful thinking, but the team is capable of only wining 3 as well.


Player Prop

Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 750.5 Rushing Yard + OVER 4.5 Rushing TD's feels like a lock. He's going to be leaned on to a crazy extent.




New York Jets

O/U: 9.5

Super Bowl: +2000

AFC Champion: +1100

AFC East Winner: +190

Rodgers
Fox



Free Agency


Departures; EDGE John Franklin-Meyers, QB Zach Wilson, IDL Quinton Jefferson, S Jordan Whitehead, RT, Mekhi Becton, EDGE Bryce Huff, LG Laken Tomlinson

Re-Signings: LB CJ Mosley, S Chuck Clark, K Greg Zurlein, S Ashtyn Davis, LG Sam Eguavoen

Additions: IDL Javon Kinlaw, CB Isaiah Oliver, WR Mike Williams, LT Tyron Smith, EDGE Haason Reddick, QB Tyrod Taylor, RT Morgan Moses, LG John Simpson

Draft

1 (11): Olu Fashanu Penn State OT
3 (1): Malachi Corley Western Kentucky WR
4 (34): Braelon Allen Wisconsin RB
5 (36): Jordan Travis Florida State QB
5 (38): Isaiah Davis South Dakota State RB
5 (41): Qwan'tez Stiggers Toronto Argonauts CB
7 (37): Jaylen Key Alabama S

2024 Preview


The Jets Offense is the definition of of boom or bust. I don't even mean on a down by down, series by series, or game by game basis. They require Aaron Rodgers, Tyron Smith, Mike Williams, and Morgan Moses to all be healthy and playing well for all 17 games. That's an insanely tall ask. Their signings also make less sense with how they drafted. They drafted players that will likely not see the field this year, despite being a team that needs to win now at all costs. Jordan Travis makes sense as a draft and stash developmental player. Olu Fashanu, Malachi Corley, and two whole running backs that will not get significant snaps does not make sense for a team that needs high level talent right now. There is no margin for error for this offense because of the approach by the front office. If the line is healthy and plays up to their potential, they have a puncher's chance at a winning record. If Aaron Rodgers resembles his 2021 form and looks like not a 40 year old coming off an Achilles tear, they'll threaten for the division and maybe more. The issue is that it's a razor's edge. They also are getting absolutely nothing from their coaching staff. Nathaniel Hackett is only employed because Aaron Rodgers likes him. He provides nothing of value schematically. It's a hard team to preview because of thin their margin is, and how fickle injury luck is.


The defense has been an elite unit for a couple of years now. The issue for them is that it's incredibly difficult to maintain elite status for more than a couple years at a time. Year over year attrition happens to great defensive units that haven't had to play an inordinate amount of snaps due to having no offensive support. The Jets defense has played 2275 defensive snaps over the past two seasons compared to 2215 offensive snaps. For reference the 49ers have played 2163 defensive snaps and 2163 offensive snaps in the same time period. Those snaps add up, and unfortunately, the Jets defense is significantly worse. The secondary is really good still. Sauce Gardner is arguably the best corner in the NFL and DJ Reed and Michael Carter II are more than capable field side and nickel corners. Tony Adams and Chuck Clark aren't going to blow you away but they are pro's pros that will complete their assignment more often than not. Quincy Williams and CJ Mosley are both great linebackers that have shown no signs of slowing down. The issue they will be having is that they let 2 of their 3 best defensive lineman walk. There was no good reason to let Bryce Huff and John Franklin-Meyers walk. Especially if the Bryce Huff solution was giving up a top 100 pick for Haason Reddick and not paying him so that he doesn't even take the field for you. Jermaine Johnson is a good player but now he's forced to play 3Tech IDL instead of his natural EDGE position. Quinnen Williams is one man wrecking crew capable, but the snap count adds up. If he has to miss any time there is no pass rush without a blitz, and that the weakens teh coverage, and all of sudden what was an elite unit is no longer elite, and now you need 25-28 points from the offense to compete. The season is a razor's edge and I frankly don't know which way it will fall.




OVER OR UNDER

9.5 is low. The issue I have is that they need a perfect season health wise. I don't think that's a possibility at the Meadowlands. I have to go under based on just how much has to go right, and that's without even getting into what's an incredibly shaky coaching staff.


PLAYER PROP

Breece Hall OVER 1050.5 rushing yards. He's going to need to shoulder a big load and he's more than explosive enough to hit the 1100 yard mark.



Miami Dolphins

O/U: 10.5

Super Bowl: +2200

AFC Champion: +1100

AFC East Winner: +200

Tua
Megan Briggs/Getty Images


Free Agency


Departures: C Connor Williams, S Brandon Jones, RG Robert Hunt, IDL Christian Wilkins, LB Jerome Baker, S Deshon Eliot, EDGE Andrew van Ginkel

Re-signings: LT Terron Armstead, WR Braxton Berrios, RB Raheem Mostert

Additions: S Jordan Poyer, CB Kendall Fuller, IDL Neville Gallimore, IDL Benito Jones, LB Jordyn Brooks, IDL Teair Tart

Draft

1 (21): EDGE Chop Robinson, Penn State
2 (55): T Patrick Paul, Houston
4 (120): RB Jaylen Wright, Tennessee
5 (158): EDGE Mohamed Kamara, Colorado State
6 (184): WR Malik Washington, Virginia
6 (198): S Patrick McMorris, California
7 (241): WR Tahj Washington, USC

2024 Preview


The Dolphins are set up to have a major ear. The Bills lost some talent. The Jets are a mess, the Patriots are fully rebuilding, and the Dolphins were able to plug holes on both sides of the ball while losing a minimal amount of contributors from last season. The offense will cook. They're better on the offensive line. They maintained their receiving corp, and are primed to continue killing teams with speed. Adding Jaylen Wright, Patrick Paul, and Malik Washington in the draft is massive for their depth at RB, OL, and WR. It's on Tua to perform and last year was an astounding year for him. There's a chance that he keep getting better as he's only 26 and is in year 3 of an offense that he's becoming masterful at running. Tua had a 69.3% Completion Percentage, 4624 yards, 29 TD's, 14 interceptions, and 8.3 Yards Per Attempt. He can very easily lead the NFL in yards, completions percentage, yards per attempt, and touchdowns if he keeps up the momentum of last season. It will ultimately come down to playoff performance and improvement ion the trenches to get the monkey of their back.


The defense had issues against the run. They spent the offseason addressing said issues with the run. Neville Gallimore, Benito Jones, and Teair Tart will be great in early down and short yardage situations. Chop Robinson will be a physical presence off the edge that will successfully rush the passer along with being stout in the run game. Mo Kamara will be brought in on passing downs to scream off the edge with some rare bend. This improved defensive line will allow what's a solid back 7 to perform at a higher level. David Long Jr. an Jordyn Brooks are solid enough backers that perform adequately. The secondary has improved with the additions of Jordan Poyer and Kendall Fuller. It's an older group, but an experienced one that should be able to bully receivers with their length and speed. All in all the defense has improved significantly.


OVER OR UNDER.

Over. The Dolphins are primed for a 12-13 win season. Their offense is a nightmare to line up against and if the defense can be a top end unit it will allow Miami to get up early and force opposing teams into uncomfortable boxes.


PLAYER PROP

If Tua approaches 5,000 passing yards and 40 touchdown he will be in




Buffalo Bills

O/U: 10.5

Super Bowl: +1700

AFC Champion: +1100

AFC East Winner: +170

Josh Allen
Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports


Free Agency


Departures: S Micah Hyde, EDGE Shaq Lawson, EDGE Leonard Floyd, S Jordan Poyer, IDL Jordan Phillips, C Mitch Morse, WR Gabriel Davis, CB Dane Jackson, WR Stefon Diggs

Re-signings: LT Dion Dawkins, TE Dawson Knox, CB Taron Johnson, IDL Daquan Jones, EDGE AJ Epenesa

Additions: WR Marques Valdes-Scantling, WR Curtis Samuel, WR Mack Hollins, EDGE Dewuane Smoot, QB Mitchell Trubisky

Draft

2 (33): WR Keon Coleman, Florida State
2 (60): S Cole Bishop, Utah
3 (95): DI DeWayne Carter, Duke
4 (128): RB Ray Davis, Kentucky
5 (141): C Sedrick Van Pran, Georgia
5 (160): LB Edefuan Ulofoshio, Washington
5 (168): ED Javon Solomon, Troy
6 (204): T Tylan Grable, UCF
6 (219): CB Daequan Hardy, Penn State
7 (221): G Travis Clayton, International Pathway Program


2024 Preview


The Bills have reloaded. It's going to look a little different, and once they can get Von Miller off their books they'll be back in fulfill force, but for now they're in the middle of a reload but are still awesome and are going to be contenders. Why? Because they have Josh Allen. When you have a QB that can put on the cape the way Allen can, you can afford to rebuild around him. The OLine will be solid enough. Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid will lead the way for a young receiving corp. Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins, MVS, and Keon Coleman have the speed to run under Josh Allen go balls. James Cook, Ryan Davis, and Ty Johnson will helm what should be a good rushing attack. All of this is around the 2nd best QB in the NFL. I have no doubt the bills will continue to be a top 5 offense, and maybe this year they won't entirely be boom or bust, and have the consistency and sustainability needed to be a championship caliber team.


The defense will likely take a step back. Matt Milano is potentially not playing again this year. Losing Micha Hyde and Jordan Poyer as a safety tandem is bad for the back end. It leaves a lot for Rasul Douglas, Taron Johnson, and Chirstian Benford to make sure they erase in the passing game. The Bills front has 3 great players and a husk of a hall of famer. Greg Rousseau, Daquan Jones, and Ed Oliver are enough of a fearsome front on their own. The issue will be in the middle of the field and teams that have great presences it TE and in slot will kill them.


OVER OR UNDER

Over. I can't see them finishing below 11-6. They have too good of a foundation and pedigree at this point.


Player Prop

Josh Allen at +800 is really strong, especially if the Bills overperform and nab the top seed in the AFC, which i very possible if Josh Allen puts on the cape for all 17 games.



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