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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

5 Best Post All-Star Break Bets

Place the Following 5 Bets and Make Some Money

Baltimore Orioles Run Line

Since the beginning of the 2022 MLB Season, the Baltimore Orioles have turned into cover machines. Sporting an astounding 97-65-0 ATS in 2022, the birds have followed that up with a stellar 55-34 in the first half of 2023 season.

The linchpin of their success is catcher Adley Rutschman. Rutschman sports a .273/.376/.423 slash line on the season, good for a 125 wRC+. Baltimore gaining outstanding offense from the catcher position while also losing nothing on the defensive aspect of the position, Rutschman has accrued .7 fWAR on the year so far, is a boon to an offense that almost every team would kill to have. The pitching staff has been better since Rutschman was called up in early 2022. Baltimore pitchers experienced a 49% strike rate with #35 as their battery mate, and so far in 2023 the catcher has already saved 1.2 runs with his framing alone.

While his impact on winning has been undeniable, the Baltimore Orioles are far from a one man show. Their 10th ranked offense is supported by current and former All-Stars Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins, who provide consistent offense. After a very bad start to his rookie campaign, Gunnar Henderson is putting together a very strong ROY case with a .246/.342/.455 slash line. They have also begun to flex their organizational depth by calling up top 100 prospects Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg to bolster their already solid roster.

Tyler Wells and Kyle Bradish lead the starting rotation with 104.2 IP/3.32 ERA and 84.0 IP/3.32 ERA respectively. The rest of the rotation’s assignment is to get to the bullpen. Flamethrowers Yennier Cano and Felix Bautista shut the door on any comeback attempts teams may have.

Ultimately, Baltimore doesn’t do anything poorly. They have the 10th ranked offense, 14th ranked pitching staff, and 3rd ranked fielding percentage, and that makes them a good team. What transforms them from a good team to a great team is timely hitting, timely pitching, and timely covers. Take them against anybody and you’ll be up in the 2nd half of the season.

Miami Marlins Moneyline

The Miami Marlins are a conundrum. They are 53-39, good for 3rd best record in the National League, and 4th best record in the whole of the MLB. They have a negative run differential, -5 to be exact. They pitch exceptionally well as a team. They have accrued the 4th highest pitching fWAR, 11.2, in all of the MLB, the 4th highest FIP, 3.88, in all of the MLB, and the 4th highest K/9, 9.54, in all of the MLB. 4 bases on a diamond, diamond has 4 sides, you get the picture. These fish have arms.

These fish have also picked up bats, sort of. To explain why there is a caveat we need to talk about Park Factor. Park Factor is a stat introduced by Baseball Savant that prescribes how much a ballpark generates offense. With 100 being considered average, the parks are ranked based on how many percentage points above or below average things like extra base hits occur, OBP in the stadium, runs scored in a stadium, and so on and so forth. Park Factor is not perfect, because a park with massive dimensions like Kauffman Stadium should have a lower Park Factor, but the Kansas City Royals have fielded some abysmal teams since this stat was introduced, which has led to many runs allowed in a cavernous ballpark.

All of this talk about Park Factor takes us back to the Marlins because it is almost impossible for them to field an above average offense. Since loanDepot Park has been the host of the Miami Marlins, they have never had a season with a Park Factor higher than 100 back in 2015. For context the highest Park Factor was 120, courtesy of the altitude in Denver. Every other season since 2012 they have had a bottom 3rd park factor, and more often than not rounding out the bottom 5.

So with such an offense starved ballpark, to have the 19th ranked offense in the MLB is enough. They don’t need to score much because the combination of Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garret, Eury Perez, Sandy Alcantara, and an elite bullpen is enough to win games. They will not be handing out free runs, and they will be scoring just enough. They’re 21-6 in 1 run ball games. They just win.

A little secret between you and me is that the Marlins are so undervalued on the market and projections hate them so much because they are 1-9 against the Atlanta Braves. Those games have torpedoed their run differential and harmed their advanced stats to the points where Vegas is still handing out + signs on the moneyline. Take the Fish with arms who’ve picked up bats on the moneyline, as long as they’re not facing the Braves.

Cincinnati Reds Overs

The Cincinnati Reds are having an amazing season so far, and its a formula that works for baseball in 2023. They play in a small park, they have a team SLG of .416, and they steal bases. They.Score.Runs. 454 runs scored and 112 bases stolen in 91 games played. They just cause havoc for teams. Rookie phenom Elly de La Cruz is the catalyst of all of this, hitting walk off bombs and stealing 2 bases at a time. He has captivated baseball fans everywhere. His star is so bright that it is overshadowing other young studs like Matt McClain and Spencer Steer. With Joey Votto’s return to the lineup recently, I don't see how this offense slows down.

They are perfect for an over bet because they combine an electric offense with the 4th worst team ERA in baseball. Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbot are studs, but that’s about it. Just a bad staff overall and that is just what we need to cash in on some overs.

Kevin Gausman AL Cy Young

DK +350

FD +360

BSB +325

Kevin Gausman is nasty. His 3 pitch mix of 4Seam Fastball, Splitter, and Slider has never been better. Per his Baseball Savant page, he rarely gets hit hard or barreled up and combines that with elite swing and miss and chase rate. He is a straight up ace.

Why I think his value is so good is that he is trending towards what wins a Cy Young award. He currently sits at 7-5/3.03 ERA/115.2 IP/153 SO/ 1.13 WHIP, which is all elite aside from the seemingly pedestrian 7-5 record. If he can get to 17 wins, and lower his ERA to around 2.60, that will attract the older voters that value traditional pitcher stats. Gausman will also be performing against the 8th hardest schedule remaining, and doing it in the best division in all of American sports. That type of narrative is strong enough to carry a Cy Young award.

His toughest competition is Framber Valdez of the Houston Astros, who is the best pitcher on the best best pitching staff in the American League However, there is enough anti-Astro bias that if it's a toss up between the two, I’d bet on voters taking the vet having a career year over some on a team that has fatigued the baseball world for the past decade.

Kansas City Royals/Oakland Athletics Whoever they are Playing Against

These teams are terrible. Bet against them. It's free money.

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