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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

Best Bet 10/16/2023

Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Chargers(ML)

DK +105

FD +108

NFL Best Bet Season Record: 22-15

Herbert
AP Photo/Rick Scuteri

Sometimes, you look at the teams and think "I can put as much statistical analysis, stock in film, and personal knowledge into this as I want, I still won't have a satisfactory conclusion. So I'm rolling with my gut. My guts tells me that the team with the better QB and better overall offense is facing a team with a worse QB who is prone to making mistakes with the ball. Something that I think is a massive factor is that Kellen Moore was Dak's QB coach and OC for 5 seasons. That level of familiarity of a QB on a coaching staff of an opposing team, especially one that's had a bye week to prepare, is massive in terms of a defensive game plan, and the Chargers have the personnel to make it muddy.


The Chargers technically speaking, have been better a rush defense than in year's past. They're only 28th in DVOA and have faced the Dolphins which definitely skews a defenses metrics. They are holding opposing teams to negative EPA/Play on running plays, and aren't catastrophic on passing EPA/Play, which again, is Dolphins skewed. Asante Jr, Mike Davis, and Derwin James are good enough to cause problems for even great passing attacks. And there's a real shot Khalil Mack has a strong game coming off one the best in his whole career.


The Cowboys have had the benefit of thrashing three of the worst offensive lines and QB's in the NFL and they themselves were thrashed by the Cardinals and 49ers. They're also a miserable Red Zone offense. Dallas ranks only 28th in the NFL, in between Philadelphia and Houston. They can move the ball all they want, but have struggled to capitalize that efficiency with points.


The Chargers on the other hand turn every 2/3 trips to the Red Zone into a score. And they can take advantage of what's been a lackluster Dallas Rush defense with the return of Austin Ekeler.


This Best Bet is an intuition based, not every number supports this pick, but frankly, they don't always have to and I see the Chargers finding a way in this game.



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