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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

Best Bet 10/3/2023

Miami Marlins(ML) @ Philadelphia Phillies

DK +140

FD +142

MLB Best Bet Season Record: 30-31

Luzardo Dealing
Ryan Casey Aguinaldo

Miami played well against Philly this year, going 7-6 against them. They're also 33-13 in one run ball games, which is unsustainable over a multi-year period but in situations where you're familiar with high leverage spots it can end up translating fairly well to playoff baseball. The biggest thing they have going for them is their pitching staff, even without Sandy.

Luzardo is nasty, and is coming off of a breakout 2023 campaign. The fastball's gross, the rest of it is alright, but the star of the show is the ole number 1 and it plays anywhere. I also just love how his advanced numbers translate against a team like Philly, who is still playing 3 true outcome baseball. He avoids barrels at a great rate and forces an elite amount of swings and misses.

I think the stuff will play and while Zach Wheeler is a great pitcher who pitched to a 3.00 ERA in 18 innings of work against the fish, he has not faced them since August and Miami has been hitting significantly better in September than in any other month this season. There's a chance he gets some damage done to him.

So yeah, playoff best bets, let's rock.

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