Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Rams OVER 48.5
DK -112
FD -115
NFL Best Bet Season Record: 77-69-4
I love the over for my best bet for a number of reasons, but the biggest one is that the Rams are 24th in overall defensive DVOA and the Dolphins are 28th. The Rams allow on average 360.1 total yards of offense per game while the Dolphins give up .096 EPA per Play on drop-backs, which is good for 24th in the NFL.
I also think these offenses are great. The last two weeks Tua has played the Dolphins offense has been great despite the losses, putting up 27 in back to back games and averaging .245 EPA per play and an exceptional 58.3% success rate on drop backs, which means nearly sixty percent of drop-backs the Dolphins end up ahead of the chains and rarely ever go backwards or gain 0 yards.
The other side of this matchup also features a dynamic offense when all of the key pieces are healthy. Last year when Kupp, Nacua, Williams, and Stafford all took the field, The rams were 4th in EPA per play at .111. I expect that type of production to continue, especially against a porous secondary. All in all, we should see a ton of points on Monday Night Football.
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