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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

Best Bet 5/10/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Baltimore Orioles(-1.5)

DK +154

FD -250( FD has them as a Run Line Dog, Insane Site)

MLB Best Bet Record: 22-28

Irvin
Colin Murphy/Press Box

When all else is failing, we seek out ole reliable. The Orioles and Swervin Cole Irvin have been the definition of ole reliable this season. He doesn't throw particularly hard, but because he pounds the lower half of the strike zone to the point where he's induced a 52.3% Ground Ball rate. The Sinker and Curveball in particularly effective and the Changeup has racked up an impressive 27.3% whiff rate and 26.7% Put-Away Rate. The ERA, FIP, and WHIP, are 2.86, 3.34, and 1.07 respectively, so there is a realness to his performances this season.


What makes this my Best Bet is that Arizona hits a ton of groundballs, which feeds right into Irvin's approach. They have a 1.25 Groundball to Flyball Ratio, and are only hitting line drives at 19.2% clip. The matchup is just heavily in Baltimore's favor, and that's before we take a look at Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt is actually severely underperforming his advanced analytics., with a 4.61 ERA to a 3.29 FIP. The WHIP is really bad with 1.20, and what's truly concerning is his Left on Base Rate. He is only stranding 61.4% of his base runners. Folding with a runner on base just can't work against a team that terrorizes opposing defenses in all aspects, including base paths. You cannot attempt to 3 True Outcome Baltimore either. They hit the ball hard as a team, a 34% clip, and they don't like to give fielders chances with a 0.96 GB/FB ratio.


All in all, Birds>Snakes



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