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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

Best Bet 7/15/2023

San Francisco Giants Run Line -1.5 against the Pittsburgh Pirates

DK +100

FD +100

BSB +100

San Francisco Giants v New York Mets - Game One / Dustin Satloff/GettyImage

Season Record 1-0

This best bet is based on team trends more than anything else. In the last 30 games the San Francisco Giants are 19-11. Good for 4th best record in all of MLB in that time frame. The Pittsburgh Pirates are 9-21 the past 30 games. Only better than the Colorado Rockies and Kansas City Royals in that time frame. One team trending hot and one team trending cold is typically more than enough to place a bet. What makes these even odds even more enticing is that Pittsburgh Pirates Pitcher Johan Oviedo is being overvalued, while Giants hurler is being overvalued.

Oviedo has electric stuff. He throws the ball hard. However, he gets hit HARD. Especially the fastball. So far he has been allowing hard hits at a 40.6% clip, which makes sense considering he gets barreled up once very 5 or so batters per Baseball Savant.

The Fastball is especially has been hit incredibly hard. He throws it 34.4% rate and has an allowed batting average and slugging of line of .328/.547. That's atrocious for a secondary pitch, especially since his breaking pitches are NASTY.

Alex Cobb on the other hand is having another stellar season in the Bay. 6-2 Record with a 2.91 ERA/89.2 IP/86 SO/1.34 WHIP pitching line. You know you're getting quality with him on the bump.

The main reason I love this bet is that the Gants hit the fastball fairly well. Good for 13th in all of MLB. With Oviedo's poor fastball, a smart team like Giants should be able to jump all over it. They Do not hit the slider well, with only 19.1% of their hits coming off of that pitch per fangraphs, but unless Oviedo only throws his slider, I see the Giants having success. Especially Since Oviedo's 3rd pitch is a very solid curveball, a pitch that the Giants rank no lower than 3rd across three different fangraphs metrics in hitting. They mash the curve, and that bodes well with their solid ability to hit the fastball.

All in all, a good team is playing a bad team and the good team is well positioned to take advantage of the bad team's pitcher's weaknesses. Give me Giants +100

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