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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

Best Bet 8/11/2023

Milwaukee Brewers(-1.5) @ Chicago White Sox + Corbin Burnes 7+ Strikeouts

DK +185

FD +189

Best Bet Season Record 16-14

AP Photo/Morry Gash

I've written about Mr. Burnes and how nasty he's been before. Since the All-Star break he's only allowed 6 runs over 32 IP, which is good for a 1.69 ERA. He's also struck out 39 batters in that time frame, good for a 10.97 K/9. Burnes is facing off against the White Sox, who area dead team walking. They sold everything they could, their most famous player just got slept by Jose Ramirez, and you have recently traded pitchers slamming the team's culture. It's just a bad vibe in the Southside. Since the All-Star Break they have the 27th ranked offense in baseball by fWAr, and that's buoyed tremendously by having Luis Robert Jr. and getting to tee off against Luis Severino. They're also striking out 25% of their at bats since the break. The air-benders are going to carve them up. Burnes in general has elevated his game by an absurd amount since he had a season low ERA of of 4.10. Since that start his ERA has dropped to to 3.42 and his FIP is telling the same story with a mark of 3.86.

The strikeouts are self explanatory for Burnes, but I didn't like how short the odds were. I think -130 for OVER 6.5 isn't best bet material. I do think that best bet material is a Same Game Parlay of his K's and the Brewers to cover -1.5 at +185 and +189. It takes two to tango and man, the White Sox are trotting out whoever at this point. Even if Michael Kopech has a good start, which is unlikely, the Southside is trotting out AAAA arms out of the bullpen since they traded Joe Kelly, Keynan Middleton, and Reynaldo Lopez for any sort of prospects they can get. Kopech has been bad this year a 4.43 ERA/6.20 FIP/1.43 WHIP/23.7 K%/ 14.2 BB% is ugly, especially since he's a qualified pitcher with 107.2 IP. Under the hood looks worse than a minivan with 300K miles on it too.

"But Wait!!!! Don't the Brewers have a bad offense and are carried by a dominant pitching staff????" I hear you asking. Since the All-Star Break, the Brewers actually have the 14th ranked offense by fWAR. They're hitting bad pitching well and that's more than enough. Sometimes they're even hitting good pitching, like when they scored 18 runs against the Braves in a 3 game set. I want to just shoutout Christian Yelich for being a good player again. Yeli is slashing .290/.374/.469 and under the hood looks great. Baseball is just better when Belli and Yeli are raking.

White Sox are bad, the Brewers are pretty good.

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