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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

Best Bet 8/7/2023

Minnesota Twins(-1.5) @ Detroit Tigers

DK +100

FD +100

BSB +100

Best Bet Season Record: 13-13

Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Twins are quietly beginning to perform to their run differential. Baseball is obviously played in real life and wins and losses all count the same, but over 162 games water finds its level. Paper Tigers can exist in the NFL where there's only 17 games and a win is a win and a loss is a loss and then the 13-4 Vikings lose to the 9-8 Giants because the Giants were a better team, just didn't have the same lucky bounces the Vikings had.

The Twins record should be around 61-51 when you remove luck factors. They're currently 59-54 and have had a good month. 18-12 the past 30 games is great mark. In the past month the Twins are slashing .254/.329/.463 and have racked up the 4.8 fWAR, good for 8th in all of MLB. Water is finding its level.

This best bet is predicated on the Twins player most emblematic of the Twins season; Pablo Lopez. Lopez has a 4.01 ERA in 134.2 IP, which is fine, but the FIP is 3.39. He has a 29.9% K rate and only a 6.5% BB rate which makes sense with the 1.12 WHIP. The dude is nasty and has vicious stuff. The issue is that he is incredibly unlucky. a .300 Batting Average on Balls in Play is simply unlucky. He's getting blooped and hittem where they ainted to death and that is why FIP exists. Under the hood shows as much.

All of that is awesome and it won't shock me if he goes on a run. A run can start against a Tigers team that likes to strike out the 18th most in MLB this past month and 17th all season. And that offense that's raking right now is facing a bad pitcher. It's not Joey Wentz's fault, but he's there. 6.37 ERA in 76.1 IP is bad, and under the hood is what you'd expect.

A best bet on a Minnesota sports team is jarring, but hey, Pablo Lopez with even odds is a must play.

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