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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

Best Bet 9/23/2023

Iowa @ Penn State(-14.5)

DK -108

FD -102

NCAAF Best Bet Season Record: 5-0

Nicholas Singleton finding the End Zone
Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

September James Franklin is real and he's my friend. A friend to all bettors really. What makes this my Best Bet is their opponent. The famously offensively inept Iowa. Iowa has yet to play a truly challenging opponent and they only rank in the top 100 in the NCAA in rushing yards per game, where they come in at 75th, Yards per Rush, coming in at 81st, and Yards per completion, coming in at 94th.

Penn State's defense is great at just about everything. The rank 17th in the country in total yards per game allowed, with an average of 267.3 allowed through three games. Teams are only getting 3 yards per rush and 5.8 yards per attempt. QB's are getting smothered and beat up by a group of future NFL players and can only muster a collective 94.7 QB rating, good for 11th best by any defense in the entire NCAA.

Flipping this around has cause for concern for Iowa. Penn State has the 26th ranked offense by yards per game, racking 467.3 a game so far. They ran the damn ball to the tune of 208.3 yards a game, and have nice balance with Drew Aller slinging about 259 yards per game. What I really like is how dominant the offensive line is. They've only allowed 2 sacks over 3 games and have yet to turn the ball over. They just aren't making dumb plays and taking care of the football while the defense sets them up for short field success.

Iowa does not have a bad defense, far from it actually, I just they are lacking in some vital team speed areas. Losing Jack Campbell and Riley Moss to the NFL really hurts their ability to match up with talented backs and receivers and as I've highlighted Dante Cephus in past weeks, I'm highlighting Nick Singleton this week because I think he can take advantage of a down Iowa defense. Losing 5 starters to the NFL, including 1st rounders Lukas Van Ness and Jack Campbell, means something when facing NFL caliber offensive lineman and skill players. Heading into this year the only have one projected defensive draft pick, CB Cooper DeJean. He'll probably be able to matchup with Cephus or someone else outside, but Nick Singleton is looking to continue his great production. While his yards pace is down from his freshmen campaign, Singleton has already found the end zone 5 times and have become a threat in the pass game. I'm looking for him to have a good day and power a Penn State cover.

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