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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

Best Bet 9/28/2023

Detroit Lions(-2.0) @ Green Bay Packers

DK -110

FD -114

Best Bet NFL Season Record: 11-9

Lions Rookie TE Sam LaPorta
AP Photo/Rick Osentoski

The Detroit Lions are a good football team. Through 3 weeks they are one of the 11 teams that have above average Defensive and Offensive EPA/Play. They also rank 9th in team DVOA. All of these advanced numbers compliment they are 2-1 while having played 3 other teams that are 2-1 and provide unique challenges to overcome. KC requires you to bottle up Mahomes while being able to diagnose a Spagnuolo defense. Seattle wants to force a track meet and for you to keep up with their high powered weapons. Atlanta throws it back to 1988 and wants to grind you to dust with an exceptional run game.

Green Bay I believe are a solid football team, but I have my doubts regarding the sustainability of a winning record. Their advanced numbers are propped up by beating on the Bears in week 1, and I think the past two weeks are more of who they really are, which is a complimentary football focused team that can win or lose against just about anybody in the NFL. I think their loss to Atlanta shows a weakness in defending the run game and against teams willing to go 13( 1 RB 3 TE's) Personnel against them. Jumbo offensive sets will neutralize pass rush threats like Rashan Gary and force a traditional 3-4 defensive alignment. In terms of a total offensive unit, Detroit is by far and away the best group Green Bay will have played so far in 2023, which matters since the defense has to be prepared for competence.

The Packers offense has been hit or miss and given that Detroit's defense has elevated quite a bit so far in 2023, I think we'll see a Packers unit that struggles to move the ball, especially since their offensive line is still quite injured, and there's not clarity on whether or not Aaron Jones and Christian Watson will be suiting up tonight.

All of these factors make Detroit my Best Bet tonight.

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