OVERS, UNDERS, SPREADS, ETC.
NFL Best Bet Season Record: 71-63-4
DAS DEUTSCHE SPIEL STARTET UNSERE BESTEN WÄTTEN!!!!!
New York Giants vs Carolina Panthers OVER 40.5
DK -110
FD -114
What makes this over best bet worthy is that the Panthers are 7-2 to the over on the season thanks to their 31st ranked pass defense by DVOA and 32nd ranked rush defense by DVOA. The Giants don't fare much much better with the 24th ranked pass defense and 20th ranked rush defense. Dexy by himself can't stop the rest of this bad defense and the Panthers have looked somewhat functional since Bryce has been benched and since returned. We should se points in the Germany game.
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs(-7.5)
DK -108
FD -110
Bo Nix vs Spags for the first time is going to be brutal for Bo Nix. I don't see a world where this game is within 2 scores by the end.
Buffalo Bills(-4.0) @ Indianapolis Colts
DK -108
FD -115
The last time we saw the Colts play the Bills it was Jonathan Taylor bowling everybody over. I don't think that will be the case today as the Bills are much more stout against the run and their offense is no longer boom or bust. They are willing to possess the ball for a whole quarter now and that's a scary proposition. I don't think the fighting Flaccos have much of a chance, given how non-functional their offense is on the whole.
Minnesota Vikings(-7.0) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
DK -105
FD -120
The Vikings are going to abuse Mac Jones. It will be ugly barring a miracle in Duval. Vikes all day.
New England Patriots(+6.0) @ Chicago Bears
DK -110
FD -115
The Patriots are a bad team that understands it's in a rebuild and is building culture and working on improvement at a player level rather than selling out for short term team success. The Bears are spiraling as a team that had expectations and will likely finish the year with maybe 2 more wins as they still have 6 games left against the Lions, Packers, and Vikings. Give me the Pats in a cover all day.
San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 50.5
DK -108
FD -108
The 49ers are 5-3 to the over. The Buccs are 7-2 to the over. McCaffrey is back. the Buccs find a way to score. Let's see some points.
Atlanta Falcons(-3.5) @ New Orleans Saints
DK -110
FD -112
The Saints are a sad mess. The Falcons are also an impressive 3-0 on the road. I see them beating the Saints soundly today.
Pittsburgh Steelers(ML) @ Washington Commanders
DK +120
FD +126
Mike Tomlin is 41-28-1 ATS on the road as an underdog. I love him in this spot, especially since he is a road dog against a rookie QB, who his teams are 25-6 all time against.
Washington has been impressive, but this is their first time facing a top defense by DVOA, and definitely their first time facing a team with such a vicious defensive front. I think they lose and learn from it going forward.
Tennessee Titans @ Los Angeles Chargers(-8.0)
DK -108
FD -110
Before Will Levis was announced the starter, I was going to pick the under. Now that Levis is the starter, it's worth putting a missile on the Chargers as their defense will break the Titans. The Titans defense is good. It's not good enough to survive constant short fields.
Philadelphia Eagles(-7.5) @ Dallas Cowboys
DK -108
FD -108
The Eagles are going to maul the Cowboys. It's just so over for the boys.
New York Jets @ Arizona Cardinals(ML)
DK +110
FD +112
I know the on-paper talent for the Jets is stronger than the Cardinals. The Cardinals are a cohesive team. That beats talented rosters all day every day. The Jets are also 1-4 on the road this season with the 1 win being against Will Levis. I think Kyler carves up a fairly porous Jets defense and Jonathan Gannon should scheme up some havoc to fluster Rodgers.
Detroit Lions(-3.5) @ Houston Texans
DK -112
FD -104
The Lions are now 15-3 on the road in their last 18. Nico Collins returning will definitely help the Texans offense, but it won't stop Alim McNeill from mauling the left guard spot or the overall havoc Aaron Glenn creates for any offense he's had to scheme against. I also think Houston's 2nd ranked defensive DVOA is going to take a hit facing by far and away the most dynamic offense in the NFL. I think the Lions continue their buzz-saw tendencies on Sunday Night Football.
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