OVERS, UNDERS, SPREADS, ETC.
NFL Best Bet Season Record: 78-70-4
Big games, big best bets. Let's rock.
Los Angeles Rams @ New England Patriots OVER 43.0
DK -112
FD -108
This is a good vibes game. The QB's are good. The defenses have their weaknesses. DVOA is projecting a 45 point game, which is definitively more than 43.0.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins(-7.0)
DK -112
FD -115
The Raiders are not a serious team. They have the 31st ranked offense by DVOA, with the 32nd ranked rushing attack and 31st ranked passing attack. The Dolphins are significantly better, especially since Tua has returned. They've put up 27 in 3 straight games and didn't allow a touchdown on Monday Night. I think The Dolphins win convincingly.
Green Bay Packers(-5.5) @ Chicago Bears
DK -110
FD -110
The spread could be 28 and I'd bet the Packers. The Bears are an abject disaster right now and need a hard culture reset. Coaching mismatch. Roster mismatch. It's going to be ugly.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions(-13.5)
DK -120
FD -115
Coughing Baby vs Hydrogen Bomb. Even DVOA has this as a 15 point game in favor of the Lions.
Cleveland Browns(-1.5) @ New Orleans Saints
DK -102
FD -112
On paper, Cleveland is better across the board. Factoring in a Jameis revenge game and potentially a lot more Nick Chubb, I think the Browns can win this game on the road.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers(ML)
DK +142
FD +152
There are two major factors as to why I like the Steelers here. Lamar Jackson is only 2-4 against the Steelers in his career with one of those wins coming against Duck Hodges. The second is that the Ravens' pass defense is very bad. They are 25th against the pass and just lost their best overall defender in safety Kyle Hamilton. Pittsburgh has been playing some great offense with Russell Wilson and I think that continues against a bad pass defense.
Minnesota Vikings(-5.5) @ Tennessee Titans
DK -108
FD -120
This game is gross. Frankly, I just don't see how the Titans do anything offensively and I think that the Vikings will win by multiple scores off of short fields.
Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets UNDER 43.5
DK -110
FD -115
This is another gross game between a couple of gross teams. The under is the only thing that's truly fitting. of this kind of matchup.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers OVER 48.0
DK -110
FD -108
This is another game I have no read on but I think it ends up high scoring. This likely means I'll be wrong, but hey, I'll be going down swinging.
Atlanta Falcons @ Denver Broncos OVER 44.5
DK -108
FD -105
I think that this game ends up high scoring because of how poor both defenses are capable of playing. The Broncos have issues when teams have talent all over the field and the QB allows their playmakers to get the ball in space and the Falcons defense is non-existent. Should be better than 24-20
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills(-2.0)
DK -112
FD -105
Prior to the Butker injury, I thought this game would be tight. An under but a very well played one. Without Butker, the Chiefs lose one of their best weapons. Their ability to grind you to dust and be God Emperor of the rock fight is lacking. Buffalo is the best version of themselves in the Josh Allen era on offense with how variable and game plan specific they are. McDermott has the defense playing solid ball. I think that the Bills win comfortably, but bet against Mahomes at your own peril.
Cincinnati Bengals(ML) @ Los Angeles Chargers
DK +102
FD +110
The Chargers do have a great defense. Undeniably so. However, they have faced one top 10 offense by DVOA, the 10th ranked Chiefs, and have yet to face a top 10 passing offense by DVOA. The Bengals are the 8th ranked offense and 7th ranked passing offense by DVOA. Tee Higgins is healthy and the Bengals absolutely cannot lose the rest of the season. I think that they come out and force Greg Roman and Jim Harbaugh out of their comfort zone and force them to have to air the football out and at that point you're in an arms race that few teams can keep up with. Give me the Bengals.
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