OVERS, UNDERS, SPREADS, ETC.
NFL Best Bet Season Record: 85-77-4
The air is crisp. Turkeys are in the oven. Bets are being declared the best. Let's ride
Detroit Lions(-7.5) @ Indianapolis Colts
DK -105
FD -104
Time of possession is an underrated stat. Obviously, consistently going on long drives, rarely going backwards, and even gaining a 1st down or two prior to punting are all good things. You end up bleeding clock. The unspoken aspect of why this is so good is the phrase people use when they have bad offenses, complementary football.
Complementary football is a phrase fans of bad teams use when they're basically openly begging for defensive scores and special teams scores. It is real, but its something all good teams do. The single biggest complement you can give is keeping your defense fresh. Keeping the defense of the field allows them to be rested and that rest allows for more induced 3 and outs. A 3 and out forces a punt from deep within your opponent's territory. Give that short field for your offense and let them dink and dunk down the field for 6-8 minutes. That's real complementary football at work.
I say all that to say that the Lions are the 11th best team at TOP at 30:46 minutes per game. On average they spend 17:31 minutes of that possession leading. The colts are 31st at TOP only holding on to the ball for 26:40 minutes on average. I don't see how the Lions don't chew up and spit out a thoroughly mediocre Colts team, especially considering it's the number 1 team by DVOA vs the 22.
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans(-8.0)
DK -108
FD -115
If Houston can't cover against the Titans they are thoroughly unserious and should be bet against on wild card weekend. That's the analysis. The Titans are bad.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins OVER 46.5
DK -115
FD -115
I think that the Patriots score over 30 points for the first time since 2022. They're facing a front that isn't as ferocious or variable as the Rams' or even Bears'. While the Miami secondary can play, I think that all the man coverage they play will get taken advantage of by Demario Douglas and Drake Maye's legs.
This goes nicely with how the Patriots currently do not employ a single NFL caliber off ball linebacker and that's hell against Mike McDaniel. I think we see some fireworks in this AFC East battle, and frankly I just want to see the Patriots score more than punt for once.
Minnesota Vikings(-3.5) @ Chicago Bears
DK -105
FD -105
Coughing Baby vs Hydrogen Bomb coaching matchup. KOC and Flores are so much better at coaching than Eberflus and whoever else is on the staff. Simple is also not better offensively against Brian Flores, as he is now famous for frazzling young QB's that have no idea how to operate against his exotic disguises. SKOL all day.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers(+10.5)
DK -108
FD -105
Listen. The Chiefs will win this game. No doubt in my mind that they win this game. I don't think they win it by more than 10 points. The Chiefs just aren't very explosive. That's not a bad thing necessarily, but it doesn't lead to a lot of blowouts. The Panthers also have an identity. The line run blocks their butts off and Chuba Hubbard is dynamic. Carolina is actually 3rd best in the NFL at adjusted line yards per run at 4.78 and have only been stuffed for no gain on 14 percent of all carries, leading the NFL in that mark. With Bryce Young's much improved play, I think the Panthers can hold onto the ball long enough per possession to keep the game within a score. KC likes to slow play to win as well, so we should see a grind of a game where its within a score.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers(-6.0) @ New York Giants
DK -110
FD -114
The Giants are openly tanking. I hope Tampa leaves a crater where MetLife once stood.
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders(-10.5)
DK -108
FD -110
This is an important test for Washington. They need to smash the Cooper Rush lead Cowboys who have a terrible defense. If they can't win by two touchdowns while snapping the 2 game losing streak they have some serious issues going forward.
Denver Broncos(-5.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders
DK -112
FD -110
PS5 type game. Second screen type of vibe. It'd be very funny if the Raiders won, but they're a clown show.
Arizona Cardinals(ML) @ Seattle Seahawks
DK -108
FD -108
I trust the Cardinals coming off a bye more than I do the Seahawks coming off one of their bizzarro games. The Cardinals have been very consistent, going 7-3 ATS and 6-4 straight up. Seattle is 5-5 straight up and 3-6-1 ATS. Despite the closeness of these teams metrically, there is a clear factor that has me taking the Cardinals; The Seahawks are bad at home. I find it bizarre that they are bad at home, but they are 2-4 straight up at Lumen Field. The Seahawks inability to be consistent on all three phases against the Cardinals consistency and gameplan oriented offenses, give me the Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers(-5.5)
DK -115
FD -110
This was a Packers pick before the lack of Purdy and Bosa. The 49ers with Brandon Allen are significantly less threatening than with Brock Purdy, and the defense lacks teeth without Nick Bosa. Pack all day.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams OVER 48.5
DK -118
FD -102
Let's have a game. Waiting all day for Sunday night. Good players. Let's have fun.
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