OVERS, UNDERS, SPREADS, ETC.
NFL Best bet Season Record: 19-29-1

Wrapping up the first quarter of the season with some best bets.
Pittsburgh Steelers(-2.5) @ Indianapolis Colts
DK -112
FD -105
The Colts have shown a complete inability to do anything offensively besides run with Jonathan Taylor. Their defense is also porous, being ranked 21st against the pass and 18th against the run by DVOA. The Steelers offense isn't great, but can at least move the ball without catastrophic mistakes. The Steelers also have the number 4 overall defense by DVOA, which should smother any attempts by the Colts to move the ball.
Minnesota Vikings(ML) @ Green Bay Packers
DK +124
FD +128
While Green bay has been impressive, it's been against Indy and Tennessee who don't have NFL caliber offenses. The Vikings have been dialed offensively and defensively, with their defense breaking the brains of Brock Purdy and CJ Stroud. Jordan Love looked bad against Philly in Brazil, and throwing him into the fire against the most creative defense in the NFL feels like a massive trap for the Packers. It's also all on Darnold to break the 4th start curse, and with weapons like Jefferson, this might be the year.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans(-6.0)
DK -108
FD -110
Man, short week on the road after getting absolutely smacked on national TV. Nothing is working in any phase of the game, it's impossible to pick the Jags to do anything right now, so I have to go with the Texans.
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons(-2.5)
DK -118
FD -104
The Saints were dominated last week by Philly. Philly is just cartoonishly bad at game management and love to make things more difficult than they need to be. Atlanta has proven they can do well for themselves on both sides of the ball and are looking like that week 1 game had more to do with the best Steelers' defense in over a decade than it did with the dirty birds. Erick McCoy is out as well, so I'm expecting a masssive David Onyemata game.
Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears OVER 40.5
DK -112
FD -104
The Rams defense can be moved on. The Bears have such a massive coaching mismatch that I can't help but think that the Rams find enough exploits to score at least 3 touchdowns. Frankly, if the Bears offense can't put up at least 3 touchdowns on the Rams, they should fire everybody on the spot.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 42.0
DK -110
FD -106
This game is a MASH unit. Everybody's hurt on both sides of the ball. I just don't see enough explosive plays from either team for this game to exceed the teens
Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers OVER 47.0
DK -110
FD -105
Both of these teams are 2-1 to the over and it's because those defense are bad and not good. The offenses are good, especially since Cincy can make any offense look good. There's also a chance the Bengals are in full on desperation mode and that results in an offensive explosion. Either way, we have a ton of point potential in this game
Denver Broncos @ New York Jets(-7.5)
DK -110
FD -115
The main reason Bo Nix was so successful last week was that he was able to beat the Todd Bowles blitz, which Sean Payton has done all but once. What made him look terrible through 2 games was the Seahawks and Steelers rushing 3-4 and dropping 8-7 into coverage. The Jets are more than content to drop 7 or 8 into coverage, let Quinnen Williams force a QB out of the pocket, and then dare said QB to beat their awesome secondary over the top. I have yet to see Bo Nix beat teams that don't blitz every down, so I'm more than happy betting against him until he does.
Washington Commanders @ Arizona Cardinals(-3.5)
DK -102
FD -105
One of the hardest things to do when betting is temepring expectations after breakout games. I think Jayden Daniels is good, but Monday night was less about him, and more about how awful the Cincy defense was. While by no means the Cardinals are some all time defense, Jonathan Gannon has them playing hard and fundamentally sound. They've had the misfortune of playing the Bills and Lions in 2 of their first 3 games which I think is making them look worse than they will be throughout the season. Dennis Gardeck, Zaven Collins, Budda Baker, and Mack Wilson are playing very well, and they have had outstanding run fit on the whole so far in 2024. They should be able to slow down the Commanders' offense.
The main reason I love the Cardinals here is that they are going to light the Commander's defense on fire. It's going to be ugly. James Conner and Trey Benson should grind their front to dust, and Kyler will end up killing them over the top. They seem incapable of getting real stops against non Daniel Dimes led units, and there's no reason to think they will against a great offense.
New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers UNDER 40.5
DK -110
FD -105
We have a bottom 5 roster in the NFL up against a MASH unit of an offense. Give me the under early and often.
Cleveland Browns @ Las Vegas Raiders UNDER 36.5
FD -112
FD -110
This game stinks out loud. P and U.
Kansas City Chiefs(-7.0) @ Los Angeles Chargers DK -110
FD -110
No Alt, No Slater, no weapons to stress Sapgnuolo, gimpy Herbert if he even plays. It's bleak for the Chargers and the Chiefs should cruise to an easy victory.
Buffalo Bills(ML) @ Baltimore Ravens
DK +120
FD +116
As great as Lamar Jackson has been individually this season, the rest of the Ravens and their propensity to just blow leads is what leads to me to lean Buffalo. The Ravens were able to get right against what is a bad Cowboy's defense, but the defense just let the Cowboys back into the game when they should've cruised to an easy win. Buffalo has managed to come back from down 14, and then smash Miami pre-Tua injury and embarrass Jacksonville to the point where they could be responsible for Pederson getting canned. Josh Allen is playing the best football of his career. The offense looks amazing. The defense is staggering difficult to throw on, give me the Bills all day every day
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