OVERS, UNDERS, SPREADS, ETC.
NFL Best Bet Season Record: 33-43-2
Oy bruv, we got another game in foggy London town, best be placing your bets nice and early in the morning.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Chicago Bears(ML)
DK -108
FD -102
The Bears are just significantly more serious than the Jaguars. The Jaguars tried to lose to old man Flacco last week, and I think the Bears can tighten the screws on the ground and in the air, making life difficult for the Jaguars offense. Give me the Bears all day.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers(-3.5) @ New Orleans Saints
DK -105
FD -105
I just don't think a 5th round rookie QB behind a shaky OLine is equipped to handle a lunatic that blitzes every down. Todd Bowles is relentless and I don't think the backup center will be able to handle Vita Vea. The Saints offenses has looked bad since Erik McCoy was injured, and I don't see it getting better against the Blitz this week. Baker has also been playing great ball and that should be enough.
Arizona Cardinals @ Green Bay Packers OVER 47.0
DK -112
FD -105
The Cardinals have a poor defense. The Packers have a lunatic at QB that will just give the opponent short fields. Kyler has been awesome this season and should be able to flash his dynamism against a thoroughly mediocre defense by DVOA.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans UNDER 43.0
DK -110
FD -105
This game has areal shot to be performance art. Will Levis vs Anthony Richardson and the Colts are without Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman. Bare minimum, Tennesse has a top 10 defense by DVOA, ranking 9th overall, 9th against the pass, and 15th against the run. Indy's defense can be had when say, you have decent QB play and capable wideouts, but as good as Josh Downs and Alec Pierce are, Anthony Richardson is not good at playing quarterback right now. He just goes out and is an athlete, and that cannot fly against a secondary featuring L'Jarius Sneed, Roger McCreary, and Jarvis Brownlee Jr. That secondary is also complimented by the Jeffery Simmons, T'Vondre Sweat, Harold Landry pass rush.
All this being said, only God knows what Will Levis will be doing on any given play, so anything but the Under feels insane to me.
Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles( -8.5)
DK -108
FD -110
Lane Johnson, Devonta Smith, and AJ Brown are all back. Zero reason to not think the Eagles won't cover against this farce of an NFL team.
Houston Texans @ New England Patriots OVER 37.5
DK -110
FD -110
Drake Maye! While this by no means will make the Patriots a playoff team, his ability to create plays will create more offense than what the Patriots have been getting from Jacoby Brissett, which is 120 passing yards per game in the Lord's year 2024. I think We'll see a much better offensive outing, and even if that only results 17-20 points, Houston should be able to manufacture enough points against a depleted NE defense that is missing a top player at each level of the field.
Washington Commanders @ Baltimore Ravens(-7.0)
DK -108
FD -115
Now is the time I remind the readers that Lamar Jackson is 21-1 straight up against the NFC. I will also remind the readers that while Washington undoubtedly has played well in recent weeks, The Bengals, Cardinals, and Browns aren't exactly a murderers row of defenses. The Ravens defense is still adjusting to a post Mike MacDonald world, but they still have Nnamdi Madubuike, Odafe Oweh, Michael Pierce, Kyle Van Noy, Travis Jones, Roquan Smith, and Kyle Hamilton all playing at a high level, and they take a ton of pride in thrashing good offenses. I think the Commanders come back down to Earth this week, in large part because I think they might give up 40+ points to the number 1 offense in the NFL.
Los Angeles Chargers(-3.0) @ Denver Broncos
DK -108
FD -104
Listen, all I know is that the Chargers are getting Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt back. That should be enough to neutralize the Broncos pass rush and run defending to some extent, which each rank 6th by DVOA for 4th overall, shout out Vance Joseph. Also Shout out Jesse Minter for the 3rd ranked pass defense and 9th ranked rush defense, good enough for 2nd overall. In rock fights, I like going with the better QB, and Justin Herbert was better than Bo Nix in college, and here is where I remind the readers that despite them being 26 and 24, Justin Herbert has been in the NFL for 5 whole seasons while Nix is a rookie.
Pittsburgh Steelers(-3.0) @ Las Vegas Raiders
DK -155
FD -115
The Raiders are a disaster of a football team. Antonio Pierce was fine for an interim head coach, but him liking IG pics suggesting his players get traded and treating his professional QB's like high school QB's and trying to find the hot hand is not good. Maxx Crosby and Brock Bowers are both special, special players, but that isn't enough to overcome a cohesive unit that is the Steelers, who will likely be bouncing back and having a solid performance featuring complementary football.
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons(-6.0)
DK -108
FD -104
The Falcons having a mini bye will be good for their defense to find some answers on the pass rush, and will allow their offense to keep growing. The Carolina defense ranks 30th in the NFL by VOA, 30th against the pass, 26th against the run. They are so poor defensively that they made sure the Bears offense finally looked right, and now they're facing a top 10 unit. Kirk should thrash them.
Detroit Lions(-3.5) @ Dallas Cowboys
DK -102
FD -115
Dallas stinks this year. The offense is jumbled and lacks explosiveness outside of CeeDee Lamb. The defense is exceedingly banged up. Now they play Juggernaut off a buy that they only beat last season because of officiating so incompetent that the refs being crooked makes more sense. The number 2 rushing attack is facing the 31st ranked rush defense. I think the Lions are going to go into Dallas and maul them,, which actually makes sense as Dallas is bad at home in 2024.
Cincinnati Bengals(-3.5) @ New York Jets
DK -112
FD -118
There's a part of me that believes in the Bengals still. I also will never believe in Daniel Dimes without Malik Nabers, even if they did run all over Seattle, who might stink out loud on defense despite the talent they have. Cincy should be able to get enough stops against the 17th ranked offense to allow that number 2 offense to get to work and win comfortably.
If you or a loved one is experiencing problems with gambling, call (800) 327-5050 or visit https://gamblinghelplinema.org/Â to speak with a trained specialist free and confidentially.
Comments