OVERS, UNDERS, SPREADS, ETC.
NFL Best Bet Season Record: 44-44-4
We're in foggy London town and placing a best bet on every game yet again. Let's ride.
New England Patriots(+5.5) vs Jacksonville Jaguars
DK -108
FD -105
DVOA Projections has this game as a Jacksonville win, but only 24-19. That's only 5! But in actuality the Jacksonville defense is by far and away the worst in the NFL. They're overall defense is 25.8% worse than league average and their pass defense is 48.6% worse than average. Their rush defense is fine enough at 16th in the NFL, but I think that might have more to do with game script than actual capability, especially without Foye Oluokun. The Patriots offense had signs of life with Drake Maye and are getting Rhamondre Stevenson back. I think that the game will be tight and a back and forth affair.
Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons OVER 51.5
DK -112
FD -115
We have the 6th and 11th best offenses in the NFL facing off against the 18th and 20th ranked defenses. Strengths on weaknesses and such. We're gonna see dudes streaking down the field and pass rushes being wholly incapable of applying consistent pressure. Kirk and Geno should cook.
Cincinnati Bengals(-5.5) @ Cleveland Browns
DK -108
FD -110
This line should be higher and is only as high as it is because of games not quarterbacked by DeShaun Watson. Nick Chubb is back, but unless he is able to turn it back to 2022 form in his first game back, this game will not be close. The Bengals OLine is much improved, and the offense is still offense. DVOA has Cincy winning by 9, and I think it'll be more.
Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills(-8.5)
DK -112
FD -115
The Titans stink, even with Mason Rudolph taking the helm. Buffalo is so much better than them in all aspects, they should cover with ease.
Philadelphia Eagles(-3.0) @ New York Giants
DK -115
FD -120
No Andrew Thomas means Brandon Graham will play well. Jalen Carter should also play well enough, and the Eagles' dudes should overwhelm a scrappy Giants team that can really only win with death by a 1000 cuts. If they can't, well Vrabel will be in midnight green in 2025.
Houston Texans(ML) @ Green Bay Packers
DK +120
FD +134
I just really like this matchup for the Packers. DeMeco Ryans always had success coaching against Matt LaFleur as Kyle Shanahan's DC, and I think that will continue as Jordan Love is very and against the blitz, and I think the Texans have the personnel to take advantage of that. Green Bay's defense has been good, but the two times they faced decent offenses they were lit up.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings OVER 50.5
DK -110
FD -110
The Lions offense is unstoppable. Last year they savaged the Vikings and that is because Flores cannot do what he does best; blitz. The Lions are monstrous against the blitz, and right now Goff is averaging 21.1 yards per attempt against the blitz. The issue is laying the Lions straight up, where they will maul you with their fantastic OLine and embarrassment of riches at the skill position players.
Without Aidan Hutchinson, the Vikings offense will be really solid. I'm not sure where the pass rush will come from for the Lions, and their secondary has had issues this year. I think we see points points points because of some strength on weaknesses.
Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts(-3.0)
DK -105
FD -110
The Colts should win with Tony Rich and Jonathan Taylor against this zombie Dolphins squad. I have not much else to say.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Rams(-7.0)
DK -115
FD -105
The Raiders are a disaster class. They're just not a professional organization at this moment. They're facing the best coach in the NFL off a buy with a team that's getting healthy. Give me the Rams all day.
Carolina Panthers @ Washington Commanders OVER 51.5
DK -112
FD -115
These defenses stink out loud, so all we need is Washington to keep doing what they've been doing, and for the Red Rifle to do some damage. Should be a a fun one.
Kansas City Chiefs(ML) @ San Francisco 49ers
DK +105
FD +108
I simply do not trust The 49ers against any teams of any sort of quality right now. Especially ones coached by Andy Reid off of bye week, where he is 21-4 in his career.
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers(ML)
DK +114
FD +104
Listen. This might be a hate bet. But this hate bet has legs. Mike Tomlin is 44-40 as an underdog outright and since 2016 Tomlin is 11-7 as a home dog outright. The Jets are an embarrassing garbage fire run by a junky, and I'll bet on the most stable organization in NFL history over a junky led operation all day every day.
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