OVERS, UNDERS, SPREADS, ETC.
NFL Best Bet Season Record: 61-58-4
Daylight Save your Sunday by winning some best bets.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills(-6.5)
DK -108
FD -120
This is a hammer and nail game. Even with Tua, the Dolphins have been the nail to the Bills' hammer ever since Josh Allen got there, with the only loss being the Ken Dorsey tablet smash game. The Bills are just so balanced on offense ranking 3rd and 5th in Pass DVOA and Rush DVOA respectively, that the Dolphins' 27th ranked team total defense will just get gashed no matter how you slice it. Buffalo is also a balanced defense, ranking 7th overall with the 9th best Pass DVOA and 3rd ranked Rush Defense. There's just no way to win for the Dolphins barring an uncharacteristic performance from both sides.
Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons(-3.5)
DK -102
FD -118
The Cowboys have the 30th ranked rush defense. The Falcons have the 4th ranked rush offense. The Cowboys won't see the ball, and even with the Falcons poor defense, I think Grady Jarrett and Jessie Bates will make enough bail out plays against a Cowboys offense that has yet to do anything meaningful offensively against teams with decent QB's.
New Orleans Saints(-7.5) @ Carolina Panthers
DK -105
FD -104
I will not bet on the Panthers this season and Derek Carr is back. Saints all day.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals(-7.0)
DK -110
FD -105
The Bengals are 8 point favorites based on DVOA projections. The Raiders are hapless on both sides of the ball. The Bengals offense should overwhelm the Raiders' 23rd ranked defense. They should bottle up the 27th ranked defense. These are all things the Bengals should do, and I can't bet on an Antonio Pierce coached team.
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens(-9.5)
DK -112
FD -110
I can't stress this enough, 4 of the 5 wins the Broncos have are against washed Aaron Rodgers, Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell, Spencer Rattler, and Bryce Young. You play who you play, but the Broncos are going to make a wild card game and get brutalized by whoever they play. The Broncos in theory should be able to attack the Ravens' corners, but Bo Nix does not have the capability of consistent downfield passing. I also would like to see The Broncos face a top tier offense and how they respond, beacuse they have yet to face that. All of this is to say I think the Ravens are going to feast on the corpse of a Bronco a la the crows of the Riverlands.
Washington Commanders(-3.5) @ New York Giants
DK -112
FD -115
Barring Dexter Lawrence ruining the game, Washington should mop up Danny Debt and the Giants. Commanders easy.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns UNDER 42.5
DK -112
FD -115
I don't trust either of these teams in any way whatsoever, but at least the Chargers' defense has been amazing this year and Jim Harbaugh's ideal game score is 10-7 with 45 minutes of possession, I don't think there are enough possessions in this game to reach 6 total touchdowns.
New England Patriots(ML) @ Tennessee Titans
DK +136
FD +138
I cannot bet on Mason Rudolph. I also cannot bet on the Titans' truly abysmal special teams. Just a joke of a unit that Marcus Jones, Brendan Schooler and Bryce Baringer can exploit. The other thing is Drake Maye is playing and the Titans defensive DVOA is wonky. While they had strong performances early in the season against the Bears, Jets, Dolphins, and Colts, they got shredded by the Packers and Bills and the Lions didn't have to move the ball and play field position at all because the Titans have an embarrassing special teams unit. I think Drake Maye leads the Patriots to consecutive victories for the first time since October of 2022.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles(-7.5)
DK -105
FD +100
The Jags have no pass catchers and have just traded their starting left tackle. The Eagles have seemingly figured it out offensively and have been lifted by the best receiver tandem in the NFL returning to the field. I don't see anything besides the Eagles ending the Jags' season.
Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals(-1.5)
DK -112
FD -110
The Bears are a joke of an organization that will be losing the coaching matchup every single week. The Cardinals have morphed into a team that won't die that comes up with timely stops on defense while Kyler Murray plays at a very high level. I do not think the Bears will respond either, as the Eberflus era has featured 3 road wins in 3 seasons, being over Bailey Zappe, Sam Howell, and Josh Dobbs. Give me Call of Duty Kyler all day.
Detroit Lions(-2.5) @ Green Bay Packers
DK -112
FD -115
The Lions are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 divisional matchups and are 14-3 in their last 17 road games. The Packers defense has been very good, but not so good that we should expect them to take down the fully operation battle station that is the Detroit Lions offense. I think the Packers will also have a costly turnover or 3 that allows Detroit to keep on pace for the one seed.
Los Angeles Rams(-1.5) @ Seattle Seahawks
DK -112
FD -110
The Rams are unstoppable with Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Kyren Williams all on the field. The Seahawks are spiraling with poor play in the trenches on both sides, and Jared Verse and Byron Young are looking like more than capable starters for the Rams on the edges. There is no DK Metcalf to contort the defense for Seattle. I think the Rams boat race Seattle.
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings(-5.0)
DK -110
FD -110
This might be a second screen game. One where Baldur's Gate 3 is on the primary screen and occasionally seeing what sicko nonsense Brian Flores has dialed up to maul an immobile Joe Flacco. I also think that Sammy D gets back on track and cruises to an easy victory on Sunday Night.
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