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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

2023 NFL Best Bets 10/1/2023


FAVORITE: Kansas City Chiefs(-9.0) @ New York Jets

UNDERDOG: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Houston Texans(+3.0)

OVER: Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills(53.5)

UNDER: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints(40.0)

NFL Best Bet Season Record: 12-9

Miami's Offense is Bananaland
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Favorite: Kansas City Chiefs(-9.0) @ New York Jets

DK -112

FD -110

Even if 9 feels like a lot, but just say to yourself, Zach Wilson is playing quarterback for the Jets. Also the Seattle style defense that the Jets deploy is incredibly susceptible to tight ends that can run exceptional choice routes and abuse the seam that's often left to a linebacker to cover. Travis Kelce is going to eat.

Underdog: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Houston Texans(+3.0)

DK -108

FD -110

CJ Stroud is really good. Like the best quarterback on 3rd down in the NFL Good . Like already tossing 906 yards, 4 TD's and no interceptions good. Brett Kollman breaks it down beautifully with very informative film based content and I'm linking it right here, he can explain it better than I can.

The other reason why this bet works is because the Steelers defense is nothing but TJ Watt, Alex Highsmith and prayer when facing anybody competent. No Cam Heyward in the middle means the defense just isn't as potent. I think Neco Collins, Tank Dell, and Robert Woods is a solid top 3 to have out wide. Add Dalton Schultz and Dameon Pierce into the mix and you have solid weapons that will be able to produce against the Steelers.

The Steelers offense is my least favorite in the entire NFL. There's no comedy potential with it in the way the Saints and Bears can be comedic. It's just frustrating, antiquated, stale, bland, basic, boring, offense that's more appropriate for middle school level football than anything that should be happening at the NFL level. There's no way to know if Kenny Pickett is any good, it's just that bland. That offense is why I think Houston can cook and walk away with a win.

OVER: Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills(53.5)

DK -110

FD -105

Points! Obviously Miami is not going to do what they did against Denver. I do see a path to 30 points or more just because I think the way they can run the ball while forcing Nickel(5 Defensive Backs) and Dime(6+ Defensive Backs)packages on every down is just too potent even against great defenses like Buffalo's. That is not even getting into Buffalo who seem to only not be able score against the Jets. They have put up at least 30 in back to back weeks and I don't see their offense slowing down against what's an above average Miami Defense.

UNDER: Tampa Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints(40.0)

DK -110

FD -105

The Supderdome is where points go to die. Teams see those Black and Gold jerseys and revert back to the early 2000's level of offense. In all seriousness the Saints just are an incredibly experienced unit that is playing within a system they could not possibly be more familiar with. If they could bottle up Tom Brady, I can see the same happening for Baker Mayfield. Tampa's defense has also been balling in 2023, so expect a dearth of offense in the Jameis vs Baker battle. Of all of the Best Bets listed here, I feel the best about the Saints going under, 1-9 in their last 10 in that regard.

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