2025 NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND BEST BETS

New England Patriots(-3.5) @ Denver Broncos

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks(-2.5)

NFL Best Bet Season Record: 128-148-0

IT'S CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY. LET'S HAVE SOME BEST BET WINS.

New England Patriots(-3.5) @ Denver Broncos

DK -115

FD -122

As good as Denver has been all season, I don't think they can overcome needing to start somebody who has not played in a game since 2023 at quarterback. Their offense by DVOA was also not great beforehand. They ranked 15th, with passing being ranked 14th and rush being ranked 19th.

Against a bad defense, this might've been able to fly. Raw DVOA has the Patriots ranked 23rd on defense, but their weighted DVOA has them ranked 14th, which means they've coalesced into an above average unit as the season went on. More importantly, Milton Williams has been a 50 yard difference in rush defense, where when in games he has played the Pats only allow 76 yards on the ground and when he hasn't they allow 120. The Broncos have not been able to run the ball to begin with so the entire game will likely be on Jarret Stidham's shoulders.

The Broncos defense has also slowed down considerably. Even after the 1 seed bye, they looked gassed against Buffalo. Nobody embodies how gassed they are than Nik Bonitto. He is a great player, but went 3 straight games without a sack in December and it's not like they were lining up against Jonathan Ogden every week. Zach Allen and Jonathan Cooper have experienced similar slow downs, Cooper n particular hasn't had a sack since the against Green Bay.

This all has to do with time of possession and game flow. New England holds the ball for 31:18 minutes a game while Denver holds it for 31:03 minutes a game. New England, on average has a lead for 37:04 minutes a game, best in the NFL, while Denver only spends 27:38 a game with a lead. That may seem insignificant, but the more time teams spend tied or trailing, the more the defense isn't playing a vanilla cover 2. The more the defense is emptying the tank to give their offense one more shot. That adds up over a season and that was with their starter, Bo Nix, who is inconsistent at best.

The Patriots offense is also the best unit in the game. DVOA has them ranked 3rd, only behind LA and Buffalo and even against great defenses like the Texans, they could move the ball and score when they needed to.

All in all, the Pats are my pick to make the Super Bowl out of the AFC.

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks(-2.5)

DK -110

FD -104

The number 1 and number 2 teams by DVOA in the NFL. A rubber match where the first two games were decided by 3 points combined. Turnovers, special teams touchdowns, fluky two point conversions. Dominant defenses and electric offenses. The Seahawks and Rams are dead even and the only real difference people perceive is at Quarterback, where it's easy to favor Stafford over Darnold.

There actually is a massive difference in this game, and it's special teams. The Rams rank 26th and the Seahawks are ranked 1st. Having this massive difference in the kicking game will determine field position which ultimately determines points scored, be it by field goal, touchdown, or return touchdown.

I think that Seattle's defense will be smothering and their special teams will make life easy, leading the Seahawks to a win, and a Super Bowl berth.

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