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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

Best Bet 5/13/2024

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles(-1.5)

FD +125

DK +124

MLB Best Bet Season Record: 27-30

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Jose Berrios is really good pitcher. The issue for his is lefties tend to do serious damage to him. Depending on the team, you can manage that type of weakness and live with a walk here or there. Baltimore does not let lefty weak RHP's hide. There lineup is good enough as is, but they have some real righty mashers in Cedric Mullins and Ryan O'Hearn that just add length to that lineup.

The second part of this Best Bet is Corbin Burnes is just really good. The Blue Jays have been struggling mightily to manufacture runs. They hit 1.17 Groundballs to Fly Balls, good for 19th in the MLB. Corbin Burnes is inducing a 50% GB rate while stranding 79.8% of runners. This is all very important because the Blue Jays are tied for 3rd in most GIDP's, and they've lost the most value on said double plays per FanGraphs wGDP. For reference, Baltimore leads MLB in wGDP with 2.2. The Blue Jays have a wGDP of -2.8.

All in all, Baltimore is just a much better team, and I wouldn't be shocked if we see a sweep.

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