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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

Best Bet 5/3/2024

Miami Marlins @ Oakland Athletics(-1.5)

DK +150

FD +152

MLB Best Bet Season Record: 16-23

JP Sears
Getty Images

This seems like a crazy Best Bet, but now that we have a little over a month of ball we have some good data to work with, like how Oakland is 18-14 against the run line, and the Marlins are 9-24 against the run line. Per Fangraphs, Oakland is a better hitting team, better fielding team, and a better pitching team. Oakland is a downright solid pitching team in teh grand scheme of the MLB, ranking 15th on fWAR while having a team ERA and FIP of 3.83 and 3.82 respectively.

JP Sears is coming off his worst start of the year, but it can be forgiven as he went 6.1 against Baltimore while striking out 8. He got homered on against the birds, and that's what they do. I'm not going to hold it against him when Baltimore has hit 48 home runs in 31 games as a team. I believe he can hold it down against Miami, who have negative WAR nod have only hit 24 home runs in 33 games.

The other thing is that while the lineup has not been great, they hit dingers. They've hit 37 on 32 games. You can bet on one of their bats to get a hold of one, and for their staff to hold it down.

Miami is the 2nd worst team in all of MLB, and would be drawing significantly more ire than they currently are if the White Sox weren't historically bad. They can pitch, but that's really it. They can't generate enough offense to cover spreads, and are -$1,514 on money this year.

All in all, the A's might be featured a lot more Best Bets this season, because they're living out the plot to Major League right now.

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