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Best Bet 6/25/2024

Writer's picture: Mason DalleyMason Dalley

Washington Nationals(-1.5) @ San Diego Padres

DK +142

FD +140

MLB Best Bet Season Record: 58-65

Mackenzie Gore
MLB.com



Mackenzie Gore pitches well against the team that drafted him. He's tossed 9.2 IP against his former team giving up 4 runs, striking out 14, walking 6 and giving up 2 home runs over 207 pitches. Those are alright numbers but what they don't account for is the leap Gore has taken in year 3. He's been awesome over 80.0 innings, along with being insanely unlucky.


He has a career high 11.03 K/9, career low 2.81 BB/9, career low, 0.68 HR/9, career low 3.49 ERA, and career low FIP of 2.84. This is all why being the most unlucky pitcher in all of MLB. His induced BABIP is .376, which can only be achieved with a combination of bad luck on where balls land and some truly poor defense behind him. The number is 29 points higher than the 2nd unluckiest pitcher in all of MLB, to a point where there will likely be some positive regression to the mean over the next couple of months.


Where all of these awesome performances come into play is that a good chunk of bats in the Padres lineup have been striking out and struggling overall in the past 2 weeks. Jackson Merrill has been balling, slashing .326/.367/.804 over these two weeks, Jurickson Profar is continuing his stellar 2024 with a .286/.333/.381 slash line, but other than those two no one is performing at a high level. Gore should carve them up, considering 6/10 of their every day players are punching out at least 20% of the time, making it a high value best bet.



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