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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

Best Bet 7/18/2023

Baltimore Orioles Run Line against the Los Angeles Dodgers

DK -1.5 +170

FD +1.5 -178

BSB +1.5 -190

Best Bet Season Record: 2-2

Credit: @Orioles Twitter

Get this on Draft Kings while you can. I have no idea how stable these lines are as of roughly 20 hours before first pitch. I also have no idea how a +1.5 run line underdog has a -190 to cover but I guess that's how much the sports books are beginning to respect Baltimore as cover machines.

As mentioned in my 2nd half of the season system bets, Baltimore covers baseball games at the best rate in all of MLB. That's what they do. The biggest reason why is that they are timely with hitting and pitching. No one personifies that more than their starting pitcher, Tyler Wells.

Wells has a fine pitcher line, with his traditional stats outperforming his advanced stats. His pitching line of 3.18 ERA/4.64 FIP/104.2 IP/103 SO/5.9 BB%/ .93 WHIP is really good. The FIP suggests he's really lucky, and he is. He's induced a .202 BABIP this season , which is an absurdly average and likely unsustainable heading into next year. What he does do well is deny traffic by pounding the zone with his solid 4SEAM/Cutter combination and relying on his defense to take care of the combined 78.9% rate of Topped/Under/Flares/Burners he induces. Wells also leaves 86% of all runners he allows on base. That's the type of clutch factor you can't measure aside from seeing how he does in high leverage situation, and to strand runners, which he rarely allows to begin with, at such a high rate is remarkable.

The other side of this bet is that I have zero trust in Michael Grove and a flat out bad Dodgers Bullpen to hold up against a good offense like Baltimore's. They are a high usage bullpen as well, they've accrued a lot of WAR but that doesn't mean much when all that WAR is coming with a unit ERA of 4.29 and a 8.88 K/9 rate.

Baltimore is 57-36 on the season, and 56-37 ATS. They cover games and with their best pitcher on the mound against a shaky pitching staff, I see no reason for that not to continue. Chaos Coming.

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