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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

Best Bet 7/21/2023

The Los Angeles Dodgers @ The Texas Rangers OVER 9.0 Runs

DK -105

FD -122

BSB -110

Best Bet Season Record: 3-4

AP Photo/Nick Wass


The Los Angeles Dodgers and Texas Rangers are top 5 in all of MLB in the following offensive categories.


Runs Per Game

RBI

On Base Percentage

Slugging Percentage

On Base + Slugging

OPS+

Grounded into Double Play Percentage


The Dodgers and Rangers get on base, stay on base, take good at bats, and generally make life awful for opposing pitchers. This is made better by the fact that both teams hit their over props more often than not. The Dodgers are 55-36 in their O/U props this season and Texas is 48-40 in their O/U props. The fact that they are positive with such high powered offenses that drive up the number is no small feat. What makes me put this as my best bet of the day is that both Teams do not have their best starters going for them, and they have shaky bullpens.


Andrew Heaney is the definition of an end of the rotation piece. His 91.1 IP/4.43 ERA/5.03 FIP/97 SO/9.4% BB Rate is not great. His advanced numbers are also nothing to admire.


The Dodgers aren't faring much better. Tony Gonsolin is Heaney without the length and strikeout potential. 72.2 IP/3.72 ERA/4.70 FIP/57 SO/9.0% BB Rate is not good enough to be consistent against great offenses. And like Heaney, the advanced numbers don't make his mediocre season palatable.


I've mentioned the Dodgers bullpen issues prior, who turned into the 2015 Royals unit when I bet against them, but they are not the lesser staff in this series. The Rangers bullpen ERA ranks 7th worst in all of MLB at 4.41 and is the only bullpen on a current playoff team that is a bottom 3rd unit in all of MLB. We have mediocre pitchers that hand the ball to bad bullpens against great offenses. There's a chance these teams cover the Over by themselves.


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