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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

Best Bet 7/23/2023

Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners(-1.5)

DK +160

FD +160

BSB +160

Best Bet Season Record: 6-5

Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images


Bryan Woo is a stud. 4.74 ERA doesn't look good, but considering he only has 38.0 IP, it'd be more appropriate to look at what's under the hood.

Under the hood looks pretty damn good. Partner these percentiles and a 3.89 FIP and you have a more than solid pitcher. I see him continuing to reflect his advanced metrics as the season goes along. More than anything, his fastballs are nasty. The spin is whatever when the 4SEAM has an induced Batting Average of .250 with an expected Batting Average of .196, meaning he's been a more than a little unlucky so far. Same goes for the .500 Slugging percentage when compared with the Expected Slugging of .416. The sinker is the star of the show with a .205 induced Batting Average, .246 Expected Batting Average, .341 Slugging, .306 Expected Slugging, and .243 Weighted Outs Above Average, or WOBA for short.


Bryan Woo is a star in the making, and is another weapon for what's soon to be considered the best pitching staff in all of MLB.


For as much as I'm impressed with and believe in Woo, this Best Bet is because of the pitcher taking the mound for Toronto, the worst pitcher in all of MLB, Alek Manoah.


15 Starts/6.18 ERA/6.27 FIP/67 IP/17.3 K%/14.6%/.280 BA Allowed/1.84 WHIP

To be fair, I looked under the hood to have you buy into Bryan Woo, let's take a look at Manoah's Baseball Savant page for 2023.

Oh.....


There is no baseball reason for Alek Manoah to be this bad coming off a frankly outstanding 2022 campaign where he was a Cy Young finalist, finishing 3rd. He hurled 196.2 IP to the totals of a 2.24 ERA/3.35 FIP/22.9 K%/6.5 BB%/.200 BA Allowed/.99 WHIP. He left 82.6% off all runners on base. He had a better season than the following pitchers.


Shohei Ohtani

Framber Valdez

Shane McClanahan

Shane Bieber

Gerrit Cole

Kevin Gausman


Could you imagine that someone who was trending to be at worst a top 10 pitcher in the American League would end up in the Complex League for a portion of the season? The only logical explanation is that Manoah mentally can't handle the pitch clock. I don't buy the physical aspect of it that he can't handle. Framber Valdez is a hoss at 5'11 239LBS and he's been his usual phenomenal self. Kenley Jansen and his hoss frame of 6'5 265LBS is putting together a more than worthy All-Star campaign, in year 14. Manoah's 6'6 285LBS frame shouldn't be an issue. Whatever the reason, Manoah has been abysmal this season and the Mariners should be able to take on Manoah after shelling Kevin Gausman.


If you aren't sold on Woo, just remember you're betting against Manoah.




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