Best Bet 7/28/2025

Miami Marlins(-1.5) @ St. Louis Cardinals

DK +157

FD +158

MLB Best Bet Season Record: 72-94

Rhona Wise-Imagn Images

The Miami Marlins are lurking. After posting a 23-33 record from opening day to the end of May, the fish are 27-21 since. Since June 1st their offense ranks 18th by fWAR, fantastic considering how difficult it is to generate offense in spacious Loan Depot Park. While the whole lineup is not stellar, Kyle Stowers has put up 2.3 fWAR with a .315/.404/.671 slash line. Heriberto Hernandez, Xavier Edwards, Otto Lopez, and Liam Hicks are all doing their part with positive wRC+s.

The star of the show since June has been the pitching. Only Texas, Philadelpia, and Milwaukee have put up more fWAR since June 1st. To do that you need great starters and with a resuscitated Sandy Alcantara, all of a sudden a rotation of Janson Junk, Eury Perez, Edward Cabrera, and Cal Quantrill is post-season ready.

Edward Cabrera and his 2.76 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 92 SO in 88 IP are taking the mound against a flailing Cardinals team. They were 33-25 after memorial day and are 21-28 since. They're 19th in fWAR on offense and 22nd for pitching. I think Cabrera uses his devastating velocity+curve combo and the fish win tonight's best bet comfortably.

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