Best Bet 7/29/2025

Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers(-1.5)

DK +162

FD +164

MLB Best Bet Season Record: 72-95

MLB.com

The Chicago Cubs have hit 155 home runs so so far in the 2025 campaign. That puts them at 3rd best in all of MLB. Their slugging offense has traveled as the Cubs have the best record on the road at 29-25. The Elephant in their top wildcard room is that they are 31-31 against teams above .500 and a staggering 31-13 against teams below .500. They are facing a team tonight that is great at home and has the best record against teams greater than .500 in the Milwaukee Brewers.

What I think will cause the Brewers to win aside from the trends is that Quinn Priester is incredible at keeping the ball in the yard. He has a 57% induced groundball rate which is good for 95th percentile in all of MLB. He also does a good job avoiding barrels with a steady 70th percentile barrel rate at 7.0%.

The Cubs are reliant on putting the ball in the air for their offense. They are not team that is trying to grind at bats out and just get on base. They rank 17th in 1B, 8th in doubles and , 8th in walks. The go out of their to hot the ball in the air so much that have the fewest GDP and sacrifice hits. They really like hit sac flies, not to hit em where they ain't.

Quinn Priester is going to be able to attack the Cubs and force them out of their comfort zones. Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner know how hit it where it ain't but the rest of the lineup is trying to crank home runs. It's a lot more difficult to pull sinkers and sweepers than it is to hammer 4SEAMers and Change Ups.

On the other side, Colin Rea has been very bad for the Cubs. He's good at pounding the zone but the Brewers just get on the base. They're 5th in singles and 12th in BB. They also are only 23rd in strikeouts while ranking a measly 29th in GDP. They grind you to dust and it's a terrible matchup for Colin Rea. Brewers for the best bet.

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