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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

Best Bet 7/30/2023

The Tampa Bay Rays(-1.5) @ The Houston Astros

DK +130

FD +120

BSB +125

Best Bet Season Record: 9-9

USA Today

Tyler Glasnow has returned from Tommy John and he's back to his normal self. A best bet on him is pretty self explanatory. In 61.2 innings pitched he's clocking in with a pitching spread of of 3.36 ERA/3.13 FIP/12.84 K/9/1.12 WHIP/ .211 BA Against. It's nasty. His Curveball is vile. Tossing it 21.6% of the time, he's induced a .113 BA and .226 SLG. Just a disgusting pitch.

The team taking at bats against him, The Houston Astros, are famous for being better than everybody else. This year is not quite the same Astros we've come to know and hope lose. They don't hit as well and with Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve just coming back from injury, their offense will likely stay inconsistent until tthey get going. Something they're particularly bad at is hitting the curveball. Only 7.2% of their hits come against the curve, and that is good for 22nd in all of MLB. Glasnow is going to carve them up.

The opposing hurler is Brandon Bielak. Everything I wrote about Dane Dunning also applies to Brandon Bielak. It's the same picture. 3.62 ERA and 5-5 looks solid! A solid contributor to a team with playoff aspirations!!! Surely nothing is wrong under the hood!!!!!


It's somehow worse than Dunning's under the hood numbers. At minimum he filled up the zone and gives the defense a chance. Bielak has a 1.45 WHIP and 5.41 FIP. He isn't even lucky BABIP wise, opponents are hitting .294 against him on balls in play. I just don't see Bielak holding up against a team that's hit 151 home runs as a team, let alone the other aspects of Tampa's top 10 offense.

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