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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

Best Bet 8/1/2023

Updated: Aug 3, 2023

Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals UNDER 8.5 Runs

DK -105

FD -105

BSB -105

Best Bet Season Record: 11-9


The Brewers are in a best bet. Must mean we have a pitcher's duel on our hands. You're absolutely correct. Mr. Burnes isn't taking the mound tonight. Instead it'll be release point and extension king Freddy Peralta. I don't care for the inflated ERA Peralta has because the entire Brewers pitching staff needed months to adjust to the new rules. The Air Benders have turned it up a notch as we enter the dog days of summer. Ignoring the outlier start against Atlanta because anybody can get rocked by the Braves, Peralta in 4 starts since 6/30 has given up a total of 6 runs in 22.2 IP, striking out 37 and walking only 8. His last start was a dazzling 6 inning, 13 punch-out performance where he gave up zero runs an allowed 0 walks. He's shoving. The key to the success? Disgusting breaking pitches. The Slider and Curveball has an induced a .199 BA with a 33.5% K Rate.

The under takes two to tango. The Nats have one of their long-term hopes on the mound, experiencing a breakout performance in 2023. Under the hood looks bad, with a 4.72 FIP. He doesn't strike guys out, 7.76 K/9. He walks a lot of guys, 4.11 B/9. What's he good at? Soft contact and stranding runners. To be fair to Josiah Gray, not every prospect just arrives on the scene the way George Kirby did last year, where the stuff is electric. Gray is a throwback pitcher. What he lacks in raw pitch velocity and spin he makes up for with an absurd pitch mix. He has thrown 6 pitches over 100 times, and he's started to implement a show me changeup. And his locations are typically great. He keeps his breakers low in the zone and the fastballs up. He tends to nibble on the outside and hopes to induce soft contact by keeping hitters guessing. The pitch that he's added that he's throwing more and more often over time is his sweeper. It's induced a .161 BA and a .161 SLG. It's a vile pitch.

So you've got two air benders on the mound and they're facing bottom fifth offenses. Lock in the under.

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