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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

Best Bet 8/16/2023

Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays(-1.5)

DK +140

FD +140

Best Bet Season Record: 17-17

Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images

The Blue Jays are just a solid baseball team. On the year they are top 10 in pitching and batting, the pitching especially has been impressive as they are 4th in pitching fWAR and have the lowest team ERA in baseball at 3.68. The Blue Jays pitching since the break has been the best in all of MLB, with a team ERA of 3.17 and team FIP of 3.87. They're looking to assert themselves into a more comfortable wild card position, and just need a couple of games to swing their way and a couple to swing against the Seattle Mariners.

The scary thing about the Blue Jays is that Vladdy Jr is yet to truly take off, as he's underperforming his expected batting average by 35 percentage points and underperforming his expected slugging percentage by about 70 percentage points. A .264/.339/.436 slash line isn't even bad, it's just below the standards that he's set for himself. There's a chance he just goes nuclear the rest of the season because that's what under the hood is suggesting.

He has a perfect opportunity to get something going tonight against Aaron Nola and the Phillies. Nola is having his worst season in 2023. Normally his bad ERA seasons have had the caveat of having excellent FIP seasons, such as in 2021 where he had a 4.63 ERA but a 3.37 FIP. Nola has always been a pitcher that has a FIP that over performs their ERA, but in 2023 they don't have that going for them. Nola has a 4.49 ERA and 4.21 FIP, and is going to have allowed the most home runs he's ever allowed in a season in all likelihood by tonight. Allowing 26 homeruns in 148.1 IP just isn't quality. The worst thing for the Phillies is that that Nola likely needs a start skipped. He's not gone past 5 innings pitched in his part 3 starts and has allowed 11 runs in only 15 IP.

Oh yeah, the Blue Jays have the Cy Young front runner going for them tonight. Gausman's continuing to be a sicko. Nola is struggling. The Blue Jays are banging and it all makes for a good Best Bet.

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