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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

Best Bet 8/21/2023

Cincinnati Reds(ML) @ Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

DK +110

FD +108

Best Bet Season Record: 20-19


The Reds have something to play for. The Angels don't The Reds while having stumbled, have a lot of kids figuring it out. The Angels have a lot of vets stumbling. A best bet is built off of one team being good and the other being bad, and finding + signs when possible. Typically this is in run lines but for some reason, Vegas has not caught on to the second half of the season Graham Ashcraft has ben having.

Ashcraft is sporting a 2nd half era of 2.38 with an induced slash line of .219/.294/.344. It gets better too. His WHIP is 1.06, BB% at 7.3% and he's keeping the ball in the yard with a .99 HR/9. What's tremendously impressive is the Left on base %. In 45.1 innings since the break he's stranding 88.9% of batters that reach base. The biggest development fro Ashcraft is that he allows the defense to work behind him, and the defense has become great with all the rookies that have been called up.

The other side of this coin is Lucas Giolito, who has been awful since being traded to the Angels. I don't know if it has to do with overcompensating to try and win the game by himself. I don't know if it has to do with that he was traded and the uprooting of his life has him in a bad state. It's bizarre. Vegas is sort of figuring out how bad he's been, but they're not there yet. In 29.2 IP since the break, Giolito has an ERA of 8.19 and an induced slash line of .305/.397/.619. Opponents are 1st ballot hall of famers when facing him. What's even more concering is that the walk rate has doubled from the first half. 12% is not tenable for a team trying to win. The HR/9 is at 2.36 and the FIP is at 7.01. In stark contrast to Ashcraft, Giolito is allowing a third of all baserunners to score once they reach 1st base. It's a bad scene.

The Reds have cooled off considerably since their nuclear June, but they can still bang. They have been average at just about every offensive category since the break but that will be enough since Giolito has been that bad and guys like Matt McLain have been that good. Shout out the rookie shortstop and his likely ROY since Corbin Carrol has cooled off considerably. McLain field a great Short Stop and he's very quitely been the best player on the Reds. He's not as electric as Elly de la Cruz, or as quirky as Joey Votto, but he just bangs and plays good defense. McLain is slashing .296/.362/.504 with 13 HR and 44 RBI. He's also swiped 11 bags. He's a baller and has been mashing pitchers far better than this version of Lucas Giolito he'll be seeing.

Anyways, take the Reds straight up, I still don't know why its positive.

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