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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

Best Bet 9/1/2023 + Summer Overview

Pittsburgh Pirates(-1.5) @ St. Louis Cardinals

DK +154

FD +155

MLB Best Bet Season Record: 24-24

Season Units Update: +5.6

Even with football here, MLB Best Bets will be happening regularly throughout the remainder of the regular season. So with that being said and fewer MLB Best Bets going out, I'd like to take a moment to reflect on my process and why I believe it's as effective as it is.

There is nothing more important to an MLB Bet than the starting pitcher. The caliber of the starting pitcher is what determines the the number on the money line, run line, and over. Obviously some teams score at an elite level, but more often than not, you're looking to see if a starting pitcher can hand it off to the bullpen with a 2 run lead. That's why I focus on the underrated starting pitchers in the MLB. If Zac Gallen is getting a positive number, unless it's against the Braves or Dodgers I'm taking it. If Kyle Bradish keeps getting even odds, I'm taking it. You just have to trust in the offenses enough to make sure it's a cover.

Focusing on underrated pitchers has allowed me to get + signs across the board. They're riskier, the 24-24 proves it, but they provide better value when I win. Betting against the A's or Royals every game or Betting on Baltimore or The Dodgers every game will win, but at -200 every bet. I'd rather go .500 and be up 5.6 Units in 2 months of bets than be betting -200 money lines just to see a shot go in.

The decisions I make in baseball are based on team offenses against a starting pitcher. Fangraphs and Baseball Savant provide resources to show how a matchup can go, like for today's Best Bet, Mitch Keller is starting for the Pirates and has great odds. I believe its because reflex of "The Cardinals are better than The Pirates". Mitch Keller has a devastating 4SEAM fastball that he pairs with a very effective Sweeper. The 4.01 ERA is a bit of being unlucky since the BABIP he's induced in at .313. His FIP is at 3.65, which I believe is more indicative of his quality than the 4.01 ERA. He's already set career bests in Innings Pitched, Strikeouts, K%, and BB%. The 4SEAMer and the Sweeper have a combined induced .187 BA and only 21 extra base hits over 315 Plate Appearances.

While the Cardinals are the 12th best team at hitting the Slider/Sweeper with 23.4%, they are the 4th worst team at hitting the Fastball, with only 28.7% of their hits coming off the ole number 1.

The reason to believe in the Pirates to score is that Dakota Hudson is really pretty bad. A 4.41 ERA and a 5.18 FIP is bad. The 15.6% K% and the 9.0% BB% are bad. The 1.39 WHIP is rugged. It's just not good and I believe the Pirates can do some sort of damage.

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