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Best Bets 6/15/2024

Writer's picture: Mason DalleyMason Dalley

Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles(-1.5)

Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves(-1.5)

Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners(-1.5)

MLB Best Bet Season Record: 52-54

Braves
AP Photo/Mike Stewart

Home Cooking Best Bets.


Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles(-1.5)

DK +114

FD +116


The Orioles put the ball in the air quite a bit. Those balls in the air turn into home runs 14.4% of the time. 12.7% of Tai Walker's fly balls turn into home runs. He also has a career low 34.6% groundball rate. We've got a weakness on strength with a pitcher who just has not had his best stuff in 2024. Birds all day.

Tai Walker Under the Hood
Baseball Savant


Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves(-1.5)

DK +130

FD +136


Ryan Pepiot has been solid this season for Tampa. I just don't think he's solid enough to withstand a Braves team that's prone to punishing bad bullpens after wearing out starting pitchers. The Braves offense isn't what it has been in past seasons, but it is still slashing .244/.309/.400 as a team. Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson, Jared Kelenic, and Austin Riley are heating up. The Rays Bullpen on the season is 28th in fWAR, sporting a 4.28 ERA and 4.58 FIP. Give me the Braves all day.



Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners(-1.5)

DK +164

FD +164


The Rangers offense that carried them to the World Series title just isn't the same. Since June that only have the league's 24th fWAR and are only slashing .233/.297/.332 in the month of June. A team that's struggling to hit facing George Kirby who's traditional stats are starting to match what's going on under the hood, is a tough scene.


Kirby
Baseball Savant

Kirby's BABIP is starting to normalize and get below .300. The ERA has dipped below 4.00 and is sitting at 3.81. the FIP is outstanding at 3.03. I think he has a dominant showing today against a poor offense.



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