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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

Best Bets 6/2/2024

Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles(-1.5)

Texas Rangers(-1.5) @ Miami Marlins

St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies(-1.5)

MLB Best Bet Season Record: 40-47

AP Photo/Derik Hamilton

Sunday Funday Best Bets, let's rip.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles(-1.5)

DK +140

FD +138

Zack Littel is a good pitcher. He's having by far his best season as a starter for the Rays and has clearly figured some things out. What his issue going into today's game is is that he is a fly ball pitcher. Only 35% of his induced batted balls are ground balls. That's all fine and dandy when you're facing teams that aren't killing you with power. The Orioles have hit 83 home runs as a team and have an MLB 2nd best 13.9% Home Run to Fly Ball Ratio. You can live with a fly ball heavy pitching approach against a lot of teams, but against a team that puts the ball in the air with power like Baltimore, that's playing with fire.

Cole Irvin also just doesn't give up runs and causes every team he faces to spike the ball into the ground. I've mentioned Tampa's high ground ball rate before and I think that will continue to be an issue for them when facing teams that are okay playing defense behind their pitcher.

Texas Rangers(-1.5) @ Miami Marlins

DK +130

FD +128

The Rangers have too much talent in their lineup to not light up Trevor Rogers. Me betting against Trevor Rogers has been his super power in 2 out of his last 3 starts, and if there's a third amazing outing when I just so happen to be betting against him, I will retire betting against Trevor Rogers.

Corey Seager and friends should be enough to do damage against a pitcher that has really struggled in 2024. If not, I might have to swear off Rangers Best Bets too.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies(-1.5)

DK +142

FD +146

The Phils are a wagon. they pitch, they hit, they defend. While Lance Lynn is having his best season since his 2021 campaign, I don't know how long that can last. He's thrown only 57.1 IP over 11 starts, which means he just isn't going deep into games often and is forcing the bullpen to pick him up mid game. The Cardinal's bullpen has been having issues this season, with 7th worst bullpen WHIP in all of MLB with a 1.30. ERA is not a truly indicative stat of bullpen performance as the limited sample size bloats mistakes. WHIP is very useful as it shows how often a batter is getting on base against a bullpen, as a relief pitcher's main job is to prevent baserunners.

So a team with an okay starter that's having issues getting into the 7th is facing the 4th best offense by fWAR and it features 7 bats with an OPS+ of over 100. Give me the Phillies all day.

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